Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cowboys- Dak PrescottPassing31/40, 251 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Javonte WilliamsRushing10 CAR, 76 YDS
- Jake FergusonReceiving13 REC, 82 YDS
Bears- Caleb WilliamsPassing19/28, 298 YDS, 4 TD
- D'Andre SwiftRushing13 CAR, 33 YDS
- Luther Burden IIIReceiving3 REC, 101 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q30:09DJ Moore 4 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)14–31
- Q20:25Cole Kmet 10 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)14–24
- Q24:15Cairo Santos 30 Yd Field Goal14–17
- Q27:57George Pickens 2 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Dak Prescott Pass to Jalen Tolbert for Two-Point Conversion)14–14
- Q213:49Brandon Aubrey 33 Yd Field Goal6–14
- Q14:10Luther Burden III 65 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)3–14
- Q14:21Brandon Aubrey 53 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q110:35Rome Odunze 35 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:35Rome Odunze 35 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)DAL 0 – 7 CHI · CHI 46% → 64% +18CHI 46% → 64%+18 pts
- Q14:10Luther Burden III 65 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)DAL 3 – 14 CHI · CHI 57% → 75% +18CHI 57% → 75%+18 pts
- Q27:57George Pickens 2 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Dak Prescott Pass to Jalen Tolbert for Two-Point Conversion)DAL 14 – 14 CHI · DAL 29% → 53% +24DAL 29% → 53%+24 pts
- Q24:15Cairo Santos 30 Yd Field GoalDAL 14 – 17 CHI · CHI 47% → 57% +10CHI 47% → 57%+10 pts
- Q20:25Cole Kmet 10 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)DAL 14 – 24 CHI · CHI 58% → 79% +21CHI 58% → 79%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cowboys 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -1.5
- ML DAL -125 / CHI +105
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -3.5
- DAL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.9 pts
- DAL: Elo 63.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- DAL -117
- CHI +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 26.0 – 24.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 50.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1405 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +35 | −3 | DAL: Dak Prescott · CHI: Caleb Williams (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +94 Elo | DAL 63.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 59.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 54.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DAL | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 3220.6 | Points scored | 18.228th of 32 |
| 31st of 3227.5 | Points allowed | 21.813th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−6.9 | Margin | −3.523rd of 32 |
| 25th of 325.04 | Yards per play | 4.5332nd of 32 |
| 29th of 325.77 | Yards allowed per play | 5.8630th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 1–931st of 32 |
| 10th of 325–3 | Road vs home | 3–520th of 32 |
| 8th of 321512 | Opponent Elo | 15214th of 32 |
| 17th of 321496 | Elo rating | 140524th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  DAL |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–9 | 7–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| Overs–unders | 9–6 | 6–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.