Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bears- Caleb WilliamsPassing19/30, 207 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- D'Andre SwiftRushing12 CAR, 63 YDS, 1 TD
- Rome OdunzeReceiving7 REC, 128 YDS, 2 TD
Lions- Jared GoffPassing23/28, 334 YDS, 5 TD
- Jahmyr GibbsRushing12 CAR, 94 YDS, 1 TD
- Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving9 REC, 115 YDS, 3 TD
Scoring summary
- Q47:58Amon-Ra St. Brown 4 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)21–52
- Q411:45D'Andre Swift 3 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)21–45
- Q414:56Amon-Ra St. Brown 8 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)14–45
- Q36:22Jameson Williams 44 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)14–38
- Q310:39Jake Bates 34 Yd Field Goal14–31
- Q20:02Amon-Ra St. Brown 4 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)14–28
- Q21:55Rome Odunze 6 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)14–21
- Q24:48Brock Wright 8 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)7–21
- Q12:39David Montgomery 1 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)7–14
- Q18:30Rome Odunze 28 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)7–7
- Q112:13Jahmyr Gibbs 6 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q112:13Jahmyr Gibbs 6 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)CHI 0 – 7 DET · DET 71% → 84% +13DET 71% → 84%+13 pts
- Q18:30Rome Odunze 28 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)CHI 7 – 7 DET · CHI 16% → 30% +14CHI 16% → 30%+14 pts
- Q12:39David Montgomery 1 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)CHI 7 – 14 DET · DET 69% → 84% +15DET 69% → 84%+15 pts
- Q21:55Rome Odunze 6 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)CHI 14 – 21 DET · CHI 5% → 15% +10CHI 5% → 15%+10 pts
- Q20:02Amon-Ra St. Brown 4 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)CHI 14 – 28 DET · DET 85% → 95% +10DET 85% → 95%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lions 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- DET -6.5
- ML CHI +230 / DET -280
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -9
- DET 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.6 pts
- DET: Elo 78.5%, market 70.9%
- Fair odds
- DET -251
- CHI +251 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 19.5 – 26.0 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 45.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1422 | 1606 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −4 | — | CHI: Caleb Williams · DET: Jared Goff (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +225 Elo | DET 78.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 77.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 78.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 71.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CHI | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 3218.2 | Points scored | 33.21st of 32 |
| 13th of 3221.8 | Points allowed | 20.17th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−3.5 | Margin | +13.11st of 32 |
| 32nd of 324.53 | Yards per play | 6.233rd of 32 |
| 30th of 325.86 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7327th of 32 |
| 31st of 321–9 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 30th of 321–7 | Road vs home | 7–25th of 32 |
| 7th of 321516 | Opponent Elo | 15184th of 32 |
| 24th of 321422 | Elo rating | 16065th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  CHI |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–8 | 11–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 10–6 |
| Underdog | 5–7 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 6–9 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–3 DET in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.