Detroit Lions at Cincinnati Bengals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lions- Jared GoffPassing19/23, 258 YDS, 3 TD
- David MontgomeryRushing18 CAR, 65 YDS, 1 TD
- Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving8 REC, 100 YDS
Bengals- Jake BrowningPassing26/40, 251 YDS, 3 TD, 3 INT
- Jake BrowningRushing4 CAR, 31 YDS
- Ja'Marr ChaseReceiving6 REC, 110 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:49Derrick Barnes Safety37–24
- Q43:01Tee Higgins 2 Yd pass from Jake Browning (Evan McPherson Kick)35–24
- Q45:14Isaac TeSlaa 12 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)35–17
- Q410:22Ja'Marr Chase 64 Yd pass from Jake Browning (Evan McPherson Kick)28–17
- Q414:51Ja'Marr Chase 15 Yd pass from Jake Browning (Evan McPherson Kick)28–10
- Q35:43David Montgomery 8 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)28–3
- Q311:25Jahmyr Gibbs 20 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)21–3
- Q20:00Evan McPherson 50 Yd Field Goal14–3
- Q212:16Brock Wright 3 Yd pass from David Montgomery (Jake Bates Kick)14–0
- Q110:50Sam LaPorta 10 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:50Sam LaPorta 10 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)DET 7 – 0 CIN · DET 80% → 90% +10DET 80% → 90%+10 pts
- Q212:16Brock Wright 3 Yd pass from David Montgomery (Jake Bates Kick)DET 14 – 0 CIN · DET 90% → 96% +7DET 90% → 96%+7 pts
- Q20:00Evan McPherson 50 Yd Field GoalDET 14 – 3 CIN · CIN 3% → 6% +2CIN 3% → 6%+2 pts
- Q311:25Jahmyr Gibbs 20 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)DET 21 – 3 CIN · DET 95% → 99% +4DET 95% → 99%+4 pts
- Q410:22Ja'Marr Chase 64 Yd pass from Jake Browning (Evan McPherson Kick)DET 28 – 17 CIN · CIN <1% → 2% +2CIN <1% → 2%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lions 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 85.7% of 35 graded games.
- Market
- DET -9.5
- ML DET -600 / CIN +400
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -9
- DET 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- DET: Elo 78.4%, market 81.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -423
- CIN +423 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 29.0 – 19.5 CIN
- Posted spread, posted total 48.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1670 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | −78 | DET: Jared Goff · CIN: Jake Browning, usually Joe Burrow (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +224 Elo | DET 78.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 67.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 75.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 80.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DET | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 3234.3 | Points scored | 15.330th of 32 |
| 16th of 3222.0 | Points allowed | 29.829th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+12.3 | Margin | −14.532nd of 32 |
| 7th of 325.96 | Yards per play | 3.9332nd of 32 |
| 10th of 325.10 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7026th of 32 |
| 10th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 32 |
| 17th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 150914th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321670 | Elo rating | 148819th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  DET |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–6 | 9–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–6 | 8–4 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 10–7 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.