Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lions- Jared GoffPassing20/28, 202 YDS, 1 TD
- David MontgomeryRushing12 CAR, 151 YDS, 2 TD
- Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving7 REC, 77 YDS, 1 TD
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing21/27, 288 YDS, 3 TD
- Derrick HenryRushing12 CAR, 50 YDS, 1 TD
- Mark AndrewsReceiving6 REC, 91 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:29Mark Andrews 27 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)38–30
- Q41:42David Montgomery 31 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)38–24
- Q46:35Jake Bates 45 Yd Field Goal31–24
- Q49:40Tyler Loop 41 Yd Field Goal28–24
- Q414:55Jahmyr Gibbs 4 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)28–21
- Q35:13Amon-Ra St. Brown 18 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)21–21
- Q38:51Mark Andrews 14 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Tyler Loop Kick)14–21
- Q20:24Rashod Bateman 3 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Tyler Loop Kick)14–14
- Q25:55David Montgomery 1 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)14–7
- Q15:40Derrick Henry 28 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)7–7
- Q19:16Jahmyr Gibbs 1 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:55David Montgomery 1 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)DET 14 – 7 BAL · DET 36% → 59% +22DET 36% → 59%+22 pts
- Q20:24Rashod Bateman 3 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Tyler Loop Kick)DET 14 – 14 BAL · BAL 38% → 63% +24BAL 38% → 63%+24 pts
- Q38:51Mark Andrews 14 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Tyler Loop Kick)DET 14 – 21 BAL · BAL 61% → 84% +23BAL 61% → 84%+23 pts
- Q35:13Amon-Ra St. Brown 18 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)DET 21 – 21 BAL · DET 15% → 40% +24DET 15% → 40%+24 pts
- Q414:55Jahmyr Gibbs 4 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)DET 28 – 21 BAL · DET 41% → 75% +33DET 41% → 75%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ravens 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- BAL -4.5
- ML DET +200 / BAL -240
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL -2.5
- BAL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.2 pts
- BAL: Elo 59.7%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- BAL -206
- DET +206 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 24.5 – 29.0 BAL
- Posted spread, posted total 53.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1623 | 1652 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +4 | DET: Jared Goff · BAL: Lamar Jackson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +68 Elo | BAL 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 64.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 60.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 67.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DET | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 3233.2 | Points scored | 30.53rd of 32 |
| 7th of 3220.1 | Points allowed | 21.29th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+13.1 | Margin | +9.23rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 326.23 | Yards per play | 6.851st of 32 |
| 27th of 325.73 | Yards allowed per play | 5.196th of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–0 | Road vs home | 6–27th of 32 |
| 4th of 321522 | Opponent Elo | 151012th of 32 |
| 4th of 321623 | Elo rating | 16523rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  DET |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–6 | 10–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–6 | 10–7 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | — |
| Overs–unders | 10–7 | 13–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 0–1 BAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.