Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Browns- Joe FlaccoPassing16/34, 184 YDS, 2 INT
- Quinshon JudkinsRushing21 CAR, 82 YDS, 1 TD
- Isaiah BondReceiving3 REC, 58 YDS
Lions- Jared GoffPassing16/27, 168 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Jahmyr GibbsRushing15 CAR, 91 YDS, 1 TD
- Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving7 REC, 70 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q44:04Amon-Ra St. Brown 8 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)10–34
- Q413:40Kalif Raymond 65 Yd Punt Return (Jake Bates Kick)10–27
- Q36:44Andre Szmyt 33 Yd Field Goal10–20
- Q20:08Jake Bates 58 Yd Field Goal7–20
- Q23:00Amon-Ra St. Brown 2 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)7–17
- Q214:17Jake Bates 48 Yd Field Goal7–10
- Q13:20Jahmyr Gibbs 8 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)7–7
- Q15:36Quinshon Judkins 1 Yd Rush (Andre Szmyt Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:36Quinshon Judkins 1 Yd Rush (Andre Szmyt Kick)CLE 7 – 0 DET · CLE 21% → 37% +16CLE 21% → 37%+16 pts
- Q13:20Jahmyr Gibbs 8 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)CLE 7 – 7 DET · DET 62% → 79% +17DET 62% → 79%+17 pts
- Q214:17Jake Bates 48 Yd Field GoalCLE 7 – 10 DET · DET 78% → 84% +6DET 78% → 84%+6 pts
- Q23:00Amon-Ra St. Brown 2 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)CLE 7 – 17 DET · DET 82% → 93% +12DET 82% → 93%+12 pts
- Q413:40Kalif Raymond 65 Yd Punt Return (Jake Bates Kick)CLE 10 – 27 DET · DET 96% → >99% +4DET 96% → >99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lions 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 85.7% of 35 graded games.
- Market
- DET -10.5
- ML CLE +400 / DET -600
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -10.5
- DET 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- DET: Elo 82.0%, market 81.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -430
- CLE +430 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 17.0 – 27.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1393 | 1657 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +37 | — | CLE: Joe Flacco, usually Deshaun Watson · DET: Jared Goff (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +263 Elo | DET 82.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 80.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 81.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 81.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CLE | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 3215.3 | Points scored | 34.32nd of 32 |
| 18th of 3222.7 | Points allowed | 26.023rd of 32 |
| 26th of 32−7.3 | Margin | +8.34th of 32 |
| 29th of 324.35 | Yards per play | 6.263rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 323.76 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5922nd of 32 |
| 18th of 320–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 32 |
| 2nd of 321578 | Opponent Elo | 15594th of 32 |
| 26th of 321393 | Elo rating | 16573rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  CLE |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–12 | 11–6 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 10–6 |
| Underdog | 4–9 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 6–10 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.