Minnesota Vikings at Pittsburgh Steelers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Vikings- Carson WentzPassing30/46, 350 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Jordan MasonRushing16 CAR, 57 YDS
- Justin JeffersonReceiving10 REC, 126 YDS
Steelers- Aaron RodgersPassing18/22, 200 YDS, 1 TD
- Kenny GainwellRushing19 CAR, 99 YDS, 2 TD
- DK MetcalfReceiving5 REC, 126 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q42:08Jalen Nailor 2 Yd pass from Carson Wentz (Will Reichard Kick)21–24
- Q47:50Zavier Scott 16 Yd pass from Carson Wentz (Carson Wentz Pass to Jalen Nailor for Two-Point Conversion)14–24
- Q411:18Chris Boswell 33 Yd Field Goal6–24
- Q32:23Kenneth Gainwell 4 Yd Rush (Chris Boswell Kick)6–21
- Q20:12Will Reichard 28 Yd Field Goal6–14
- Q212:16DK Metcalf 80 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)3–14
- Q10:55Kenneth Gainwell 1 Yd Rush (Chris Boswell Kick)3–7
- Q16:24Will Reichard 41 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q10:55Kenneth Gainwell 1 Yd Rush (Chris Boswell Kick)MIN 3 – 7 PIT · PIT 37% → 57% +20PIT 37% → 57%+20 pts
- Q212:16DK Metcalf 80 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)MIN 3 – 14 PIT · PIT 58% → 76% +19PIT 58% → 76%+19 pts
- Q20:12Will Reichard 28 Yd Field GoalMIN 6 – 14 PIT · MIN 19% → 27% +8MIN 19% → 27%+8 pts
- Q32:23Kenneth Gainwell 4 Yd Rush (Chris Boswell Kick)MIN 6 – 21 PIT · PIT 81% → 95% +15PIT 81% → 95%+15 pts
- Q42:08Jalen Nailor 2 Yd pass from Carson Wentz (Will Reichard Kick)MIN 21 – 24 PIT · MIN <1% → 16% +16MIN <1% → 16%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Vikings 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -2.5
- ML MIN -135 / PIT +115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -0.5
- MIN 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- MIN: Elo 51.0%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -122
- PIT +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 22.0 – 19.5 PIT
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1582 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Quarterbacks | −80 | +4 | MIN: Carson Wentz, usually Sam Darnold · PIT: Aaron Rodgers, usually Russell Wilson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +7 Elo | MIN 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 54.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIN | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 3227.0 | Points scored | 24.012th of 32 |
| 9th of 3218.7 | Points allowed | 25.722nd of 32 |
| 5th of 32+8.3 | Margin | −1.719th of 32 |
| 17th of 325.25 | Yards per play | 4.5725th of 32 |
| 7th of 324.57 | Yards allowed per play | 5.8827th of 32 |
| 25th of 321462 | Opponent Elo | 145327th of 32 |
| 8th of 321582 | Elo rating | 149217th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  MIN |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–6 | 9–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–5 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 7–9 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.