Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Browns- Dillon GabrielPassing29/52, 221 YDS
- Quinshon JudkinsRushing12 CAR, 36 YDS
- Harold Fannin Jr.Receiving7 REC, 81 YDS
Steelers- Aaron RodgersPassing21/30, 235 YDS, 2 TD
- Jaylen WarrenRushing11 CAR, 52 YDS
- DK MetcalfReceiving4 REC, 95 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q49:29Andre Szmyt 32 Yd Field Goal9–23
- Q414:55DK Metcalf 25 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)6–23
- Q34:08Andre Szmyt 53 Yd Field Goal6–16
- Q37:46Connor Heyward 12 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)3–16
- Q20:00Andre Szmyt 31 Yd Field Goal3–9
- Q23:38Chris Boswell 48 Yd Field Goal0–9
- Q211:01Chris Boswell 50 Yd Field Goal0–6
- Q110:55Chris Boswell 44 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:55Chris Boswell 44 Yd Field GoalCLE 0 – 3 PIT · PIT 72% → 78% +6PIT 72% → 78%+6 pts
- Q211:01Chris Boswell 50 Yd Field GoalCLE 0 – 6 PIT · PIT 77% → 83% +6PIT 77% → 83%+6 pts
- Q23:38Chris Boswell 48 Yd Field GoalCLE 0 – 9 PIT · PIT 83% → 89% +6PIT 83% → 89%+6 pts
- Q20:00Andre Szmyt 31 Yd Field GoalCLE 3 – 9 PIT · CLE 11% → 17% +6CLE 11% → 17%+6 pts
- Q37:46Connor Heyward 12 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)CLE 3 – 16 PIT · PIT 84% → 96% +12PIT 84% → 96%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Steelers 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- PIT -6.5
- ML CLE +250 / PIT -300
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT -8
- PIT 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- PIT: Elo 76.3%, market 72.4%
- Fair odds
- PIT -267
- CLE +267 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 15.5 – 22.0 PIT
- Posted spread, posted total 37.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1368 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −18 | +8 | CLE: Dillon Gabriel, usually Deshaun Watson · PIT: Aaron Rodgers, usually Russell Wilson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +203 Elo | PIT 76.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 76.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 76.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 72.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CLE | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 3214.6 | Points scored | 24.016th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3224.6 | Points allowed | 24.521st of 32 |
| 29th of 32−10.0 | Margin | −0.519th of 32 |
| 30th of 324.34 | Yards per play | 4.9024th of 32 |
| 2nd of 324.42 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6925th of 32 |
| 26th of 320–2 | Road vs home | 0–129th of 32 |
| 1st of 321578 | Opponent Elo | 148223rd of 32 |
| 29th of 321368 | Elo rating | 151018th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  CLE |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–12 | 9–6 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 4–9 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 6–10 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 2–2 PIT in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.