Minnesota Vikings at Cleveland Browns, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Vikings- Carson WentzPassing25/34, 236 YDS, 1 TD
- Jordan MasonRushing13 CAR, 52 YDS, 1 TD
- Justin JeffersonReceiving7 REC, 123 YDS
Browns- Dillon GabrielPassing19/33, 190 YDS, 2 TD
- Quinshon JudkinsRushing23 CAR, 110 YDS
- David NjokuReceiving6 REC, 67 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:25Jordan Addison 12 Yd pass from Carson Wentz (Will Reichard Kick)21–17
- Q33:05David Njoku 9 Yd pass from Dillon Gabriel (Andre Szmyt Kick)14–17
- Q311:11Jordan Mason 3 Yd Rush (Will Reichard Kick)14–10
- Q20:09Andre Szmyt 31 Yd Field Goal7–10
- Q12:30Josh Oliver 32 Yd pass from Cam Akers (Will Reichard Kick)7–7
- Q16:49Harold Fannin Jr. 1 Yd pass from Dillon Gabriel (Andre Szmyt Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:49Harold Fannin Jr. 1 Yd pass from Dillon Gabriel (Andre Szmyt Kick)MIN 0 – 7 CLE · CLE 36% → 55% +19CLE 36% → 55%+19 pts
- Q12:30Josh Oliver 32 Yd pass from Cam Akers (Will Reichard Kick)MIN 7 – 7 CLE · MIN 44% → 63% +19MIN 44% → 63%+19 pts
- Q311:11Jordan Mason 3 Yd Rush (Will Reichard Kick)MIN 14 – 10 CLE · MIN 49% → 74% +25MIN 49% → 74%+25 pts
- Q33:05David Njoku 9 Yd pass from Dillon Gabriel (Andre Szmyt Kick)MIN 14 – 17 CLE · CLE 25% → 55% +30CLE 25% → 55%+30 pts
- Q40:25Jordan Addison 12 Yd pass from Carson Wentz (Will Reichard Kick)MIN 21 – 17 CLE · MIN 1% → >99% +99MIN 1% → >99%+99 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Vikings 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -3.5
- ML MIN -200 / CLE +170
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -5.5
- MIN 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.2 pts
- MIN: Elo 69.5%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -183
- CLE +183 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 19.5 – 16.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 35.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1564 | 1380 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Quarterbacks | −70 | −29 | MIN: Carson Wentz, usually Sam Darnold · CLE: Dillon Gabriel, usually Deshaun Watson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +143 Elo | MIN 69.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 77.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 71.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 64.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIN | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 3225.5 | Points scored | 14.031st of 32 |
| 9th of 3220.0 | Points allowed | 25.524th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+5.5 | Margin | −11.529th of 32 |
| 21st of 325.23 | Yards per play | 4.2229th of 32 |
| 10th of 324.88 | Yards allowed per play | 4.061st of 32 |
| 21st of 321479 | Opponent Elo | 15862nd of 32 |
| 10th of 321564 | Elo rating | 138027th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  MIN |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–6 | 4–12 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 6–5 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 4–9 |
| Overs–unders | 7–9 | 6–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.