Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raiders- Geno SmithPassing25/36, 228 YDS, 2 INT
- Ashton JeantyRushing14 CAR, 67 YDS
- Tre TuckerReceiving4 REC, 62 YDS
Colts- Daniel JonesPassing20/29, 212 YDS, 2 TD
- Jonathan TaylorRushing17 CAR, 66 YDS, 3 TD
- Ashton DulinReceiving2 REC, 55 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q411:39Daniel Carlson 37 Yd Field Goal6–40
- Q32:27Jonathan Taylor 6 Yd Rush (Jonathan Taylor Run for Two-Point Conversion)3–40
- Q35:49Ameer Abdullah 2 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)3–32
- Q36:54Jonathan Taylor 1 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)3–26
- Q20:15Michael Pittman Jr. 4 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)3–20
- Q27:56Jonathan Taylor 3 Yd Run (Spencer Shrader Kick)3–14
- Q211:33Tyler Warren 11 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Spencer Shrader Kick)3–7
- Q13:21Daniel Carlson 24 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:21Daniel Carlson 24 Yd Field GoalLV 3 – 0 IND · LV 27% → 35% +7LV 27% → 35%+7 pts
- Q211:33Tyler Warren 11 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Spencer Shrader Kick)LV 3 – 7 IND · IND 63% → 81% +17IND 63% → 81%+17 pts
- Q27:56Jonathan Taylor 3 Yd Run (Spencer Shrader Kick)LV 3 – 14 IND · IND 80% → 92% +12IND 80% → 92%+12 pts
- Q20:15Michael Pittman Jr. 4 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)LV 3 – 20 IND · IND 93% → 98% +5IND 93% → 98%+5 pts
- Q36:54Jonathan Taylor 1 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)LV 3 – 26 IND · IND 99% → >99% +1IND 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Colts 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- IND -7.5
- ML LV +290 / IND -380
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -5.5
- IND 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- IND: Elo 69.5%, market 75.5%
- Fair odds
- IND -302
- LV +302 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LV 19.5 – 27.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LV | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1344 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +52 | −2 | LV: Geno Smith, usually Aidan O'Connell · IND: Daniel Jones, usually Anthony Richardson Sr. (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +143 Elo | IND 69.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 67.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 69.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 75.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LV | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 3219.3 | Points scored | 30.84th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3224.8 | Points allowed | 20.811th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−5.5 | Margin | +10.04th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.47 | Yards per play | 6.461st of 32 |
| 21st of 325.49 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4420th of 32 |
| 10th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 32 |
| 18th of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 146225th of 32 |
| 31st of 321344 | Elo rating | 150516th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  LV |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–10 | 8–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 5–9 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 9–8 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LV 0–1 IND in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.