Chicago Bears at Las Vegas Raiders, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LV; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bears- Caleb WilliamsPassing22/37, 212 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- D'Andre SwiftRushing14 CAR, 38 YDS, 1 TD
- Rome OdunzeReceiving4 REC, 69 YDS, 1 TD
Raiders- Geno SmithPassing14/21, 117 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- Ashton JeantyRushing21 CAR, 138 YDS, 1 TD
- Brock BowersReceiving5 REC, 46 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:34D'Andre Swift 2 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)25–24
- Q46:45Daniel Carlson 29 Yd Field Goal19–24
- Q411:38Cairo Santos 51 Yd Field Goal19–21
- Q35:23Ashton Jeanty 9 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Daniel Carlson Kick)16–21
- Q311:38Rome Odunze 27 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)16–14
- Q20:53Cairo Santos 52 Yd Field Goal9–14
- Q24:03Ashton Jeanty 64 Yd Rush (Daniel Carlson Kick)6–14
- Q24:22Cairo Santos 43 Yd Field Goal6–7
- Q10:08Ashton Jeanty 8 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Daniel Carlson Kick)3–7
- Q19:53Cairo Santos 46 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q10:08Ashton Jeanty 8 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Daniel Carlson Kick)CHI 3 – 7 LV · LV 46% → 66% +20LV 46% → 66%+20 pts
- Q24:03Ashton Jeanty 64 Yd Rush (Daniel Carlson Kick)CHI 6 – 14 LV · LV 58% → 78% +21LV 58% → 78%+21 pts
- Q311:38Rome Odunze 27 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)CHI 16 – 14 LV · CHI 29% → 54% +25CHI 29% → 54%+25 pts
- Q35:23Ashton Jeanty 9 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Daniel Carlson Kick)CHI 16 – 21 LV · LV 45% → 73% +29LV 45% → 73%+29 pts
- Q41:34D'Andre Swift 2 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)CHI 25 – 24 LV · CHI 2% → 64% +62CHI 2% → 64%+62 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raiders 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- LV -2.5
- ML CHI +120 / LV -140
- Pre-line forecast
- LV 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -0.5
- LV 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- LV: Elo 48.9%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- LV -126
- CHI +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 22.0 – 24.5 LV
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | LV | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1453 | 1353 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +3 | +59 | CHI: Caleb Williams · LV: Geno Smith, usually Aidan O'Connell (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +8 Elo | CHI 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LV 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 50.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LV 55.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CHI | Stat | LV |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 3225.3 | Points scored | 17.728th of 32 |
| 29th of 3231.0 | Points allowed | 24.722nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−5.7 | Margin | −7.025th of 32 |
| 9th of 325.66 | Yards per play | 5.0822nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 326.67 | Yards allowed per play | 5.9529th of 32 |
| 19th of 320–1 | Road vs home | 0–126th of 32 |
| 4th of 321561 | Opponent Elo | 150416th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321453 | Elo rating | 135330th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  CHI |  LV |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–8 | 7–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 5–7 | 5–9 |
| Overs–unders | 6–9 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–0 LV in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.