Las Vegas Raiders at Washington Commanders, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raiders- Geno SmithPassing19/29, 289 YDS, 3 TD
- Ashton JeantyRushing17 CAR, 63 YDS
- Tre TuckerReceiving8 REC, 145 YDS, 3 TD
Commanders- Marcus MariotaPassing15/21, 207 YDS, 1 TD
- Jeremy McNicholsRushing4 CAR, 78 YDS, 1 TD
- Terry McLaurinReceiving3 REC, 74 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:05Luke McCaffrey 43 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Matt Gay Kick)24–41
- Q43:42Tre Tucker 61 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Geno Smith Pass to Brock Bowers for Two-Point Conversion)24–34
- Q412:57Tre Tucker 10 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)16–34
- Q33:03Jacory Croskey-Merritt 1 Yd Rush (Matt Gay Kick)10–34
- Q39:35Jaylin Lane 90 Yd Punt Return (Matt Gay Kick)10–27
- Q20:00Matt Gay 56 Yd Field Goal10–20
- Q23:31Jeremy McNichols 60 Yd Rush (Matt Gay Kick)10–17
- Q24:20Tre Tucker 10 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Daniel Carlson Kick)10–10
- Q29:56Matt Gay 46 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q19:46Daniel Carlson 37 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q111:51Marcus Mariota 2 Yd Rush (Matt Gay Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:51Marcus Mariota 2 Yd Rush (Matt Gay Kick)LV 0 – 7 WSH · WSH 58% → 74% +16WSH 58% → 74%+16 pts
- Q29:56Matt Gay 46 Yd Field GoalLV 3 – 10 WSH · WSH 68% → 76% +8WSH 68% → 76%+8 pts
- Q24:20Tre Tucker 10 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Daniel Carlson Kick)LV 10 – 10 WSH · LV 23% → 44% +21LV 23% → 44%+21 pts
- Q23:31Jeremy McNichols 60 Yd Rush (Matt Gay Kick)LV 10 – 17 WSH · WSH 56% → 77% +21WSH 56% → 77%+21 pts
- Q39:35Jaylin Lane 90 Yd Punt Return (Matt Gay Kick)LV 10 – 27 WSH · WSH 87% → 96% +10WSH 87% → 96%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Commanders 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- WSH -2.5
- ML LV +130 / WSH -150
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH -3.5
- WSH 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.4 pts
- WSH: Elo 62.4%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- WSH -140
- LV +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LV 21.0 – 23.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LV | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1379 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +55 | −62 | LV: Geno Smith, usually Aidan O'Connell · WSH: Marcus Mariota, usually Jayden Daniels (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +88 Elo | WSH 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 61.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 58.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LV | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 3218.2 | Points scored | 28.55th of 32 |
| 25th of 3225.5 | Points allowed | 23.018th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−7.4 | Margin | +5.510th of 32 |
| 28th of 324.84 | Yards per play | 5.7110th of 32 |
| 15th of 325.38 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4016th of 32 |
| 27th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 32 |
| 28th of 322–7 | Road vs home | 7–25th of 32 |
| 10th of 321510 | Opponent Elo | 147730th of 32 |
| 28th of 321379 | Elo rating | 154713th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  LV |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–10 | 13–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 7–4 |
| Underdog | 5–9 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–8 | 13–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.