Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Chargers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Colts- Daniel JonesPassing23/34, 288 YDS, 2 TD
- Jonathan TaylorRushing16 CAR, 94 YDS, 3 TD
- Alec PierceReceiving5 REC, 98 YDS
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing37/55, 420 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- Justin HerbertRushing6 CAR, 31 YDS
- Oronde GadsdenReceiving7 REC, 164 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q413:40Oronde Gadsden II 15 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)38–24
- Q33:33Jonathan Taylor 19 Yd Rush (Michael Badgley Kick)38–17
- Q36:13Keenan Allen 4 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)31–17
- Q312:03Jonathan Taylor 8 Yd Rush (Daniel Jones Pass to Michael Pittman Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)31–10
- Q313:01Quentin Johnston 7 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)23–10
- Q20:00Michael Badgley 36 Yd Field Goal23–3
- Q28:56Tyler Warren 5 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Michael Badgley Kick)20–3
- Q214:54Michael Pittman Jr. 4 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Michael Badgley Kick)13–3
- Q17:35Cameron Dicker 43 Yd Field Goal6–3
- Q112:36Jonathan Taylor 23 Yd Rush (Michael Badgley PAT Failed)6–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q112:36Jonathan Taylor 23 Yd Rush (Michael Badgley PAT Failed)IND 6 – 0 LAC · IND 44% → 59% +15IND 44% → 59%+15 pts
- Q214:54Michael Pittman Jr. 4 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Michael Badgley Kick)IND 13 – 3 LAC · IND 53% → 72% +19IND 53% → 72%+19 pts
- Q28:56Tyler Warren 5 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Michael Badgley Kick)IND 20 – 3 LAC · IND 74% → 89% +14IND 74% → 89%+14 pts
- Q313:01Quentin Johnston 7 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)IND 23 – 10 LAC · LAC 4% → 14% +10LAC 4% → 14%+10 pts
- Q312:03Jonathan Taylor 8 Yd Rush (Daniel Jones Pass to Michael Pittman Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)IND 31 – 10 LAC · IND 87% → 97% +10IND 87% → 97%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chargers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -2.5
- ML IND +120 / LAC -140
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -1
- LAC 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- LAC: Elo 54.0%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- LAC -127
- IND +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 23.0 – 25.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 48.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +6 | +6 | IND: Daniel Jones, usually Anthony Richardson Sr. · LAC: Justin Herbert (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +28 Elo | LAC 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 54.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 56.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| IND | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 3232.3 | Points scored | 21.220th of 32 |
| 6th of 3219.3 | Points allowed | 20.810th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+13.0 | Margin | +0.317th of 32 |
| 2nd of 326.26 | Yards per play | 5.6614th of 32 |
| 16th of 325.34 | Yards allowed per play | 5.168th of 32 |
| 11th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 1–119th of 32 |
| 29th of 321432 | Opponent Elo | 148621st of 32 |
| 12th of 321538 | Elo rating | 153014th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–2 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–2 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 2–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.