Los Angeles Chargers at New York Giants, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing23/41, 203 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Omarion HamptonRushing12 CAR, 128 YDS, 1 TD
- Quentin JohnstonReceiving8 REC, 98 YDS, 1 TD
Giants- Jaxson DartPassing13/20, 111 YDS, 1 TD
- Cam SkatteboRushing25 CAR, 79 YDS
- Darius SlaytonReceiving3 REC, 44 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q31:27Omarion Hampton 54 Yd Rush (Justin Herbert Run for Two-Point Conversion)18–21
- Q32:49Theo Johnson 3 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Cam Skattebo Run for Two-Point Conversion)10–21
- Q20:27Quentin Johnston 36 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)10–13
- Q21:52Jude McAtamney 31 Yd Field Goal3–13
- Q28:06Cameron Dicker 43 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q213:47Jude McAtamney 22 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q19:20Jaxson Dart 15 Yd Rush (Jude McAtamney Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:20Jaxson Dart 15 Yd Rush (Jude McAtamney Kick)LAC 0 – 7 NYG · NYG 30% → 47% +17NYG 30% → 47%+17 pts
- Q21:52Jude McAtamney 31 Yd Field GoalLAC 3 – 13 NYG · NYG 58% → 67% +10NYG 58% → 67%+10 pts
- Q20:27Quentin Johnston 36 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)LAC 10 – 13 NYG · LAC 32% → 55% +24LAC 32% → 55%+24 pts
- Q32:49Theo Johnson 3 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Cam Skattebo Run for Two-Point Conversion)LAC 10 – 21 NYG · NYG 52% → 83% +32NYG 52% → 83%+32 pts
- Q31:27Omarion Hampton 54 Yd Rush (Justin Herbert Run for Two-Point Conversion)LAC 18 – 21 NYG · LAC 15% → 47% +32LAC 15% → 47%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chargers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -5.5
- ML LAC -270 / NYG +220
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -12
- LAC 85%
- Ratings vs. market
- +15.3 pts
- LAC: Elo 85.3%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- LAC -250
- NYG +250 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 24.5 – 19.0 NYG
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | NYG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1592 | 1318 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +8 | −59 | LAC: Justin Herbert · NYG: Jaxson Dart, usually Daniel Jones (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +305 Elo | LAC 85.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 81.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 84.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 71.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAC | Stat | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 3223.3 | Points scored | 17.327th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3216.7 | Points allowed | 27.724th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+6.7 | Margin | −10.328th of 32 |
| 10th of 325.52 | Yards per play | 5.4111th of 32 |
| 8th of 324.85 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6623rd of 32 |
| 1st of 321–0 | Road vs home | 0–122nd of 32 |
| 18th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 15439th of 32 |
| 7th of 321592 | Elo rating | 131831st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  LAC |  NYG |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–5 | 5–10 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 11–3 | — |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 5–10 |
| Overs–unders | 9–9 | 6–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.