Kansas City Chiefs at New York Giants, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing22/37, 224 YDS, 1 TD
- Isiah PachecoRushing10 CAR, 45 YDS
- Tyquan ThorntonReceiving5 REC, 71 YDS, 1 TD
Giants- Russell WilsonPassing18/32, 160 YDS, 2 INT
- Cam SkatteboRushing10 CAR, 60 YDS, 1 TD
- Cam SkatteboReceiving6 REC, 61 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q46:03Kareem Hunt 1 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker PAT Failed)22–9
- Q410:12Graham Gano 25 Yd Field Goal16–9
- Q38:22Tyquan Thornton 5 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)16–6
- Q20:00Harrison Butker 28 Yd Field Goal9–6
- Q21:44Cam Skattebo 13 Yd Rush (Jamie Gillan PAT blocked)6–6
- Q29:48Harrison Butker 48 Yd Field Goal6–0
- Q13:45Harrison Butker 54 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:45Harrison Butker 54 Yd Field GoalKC 3 – 0 NYG · KC 69% → 76% +7KC 69% → 76%+7 pts
- Q29:48Harrison Butker 48 Yd Field GoalKC 6 – 0 NYG · KC 75% → 82% +7KC 75% → 82%+7 pts
- Q21:44Cam Skattebo 13 Yd Rush (Jamie Gillan PAT blocked)KC 6 – 6 NYG · NYG 18% → 34% +17NYG 18% → 34%+17 pts
- Q20:00Harrison Butker 28 Yd Field GoalKC 9 – 6 NYG · KC 65% → 74% +9KC 65% → 74%+9 pts
- Q38:22Tyquan Thornton 5 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)KC 16 – 6 NYG · KC 74% → 91% +17KC 74% → 91%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chiefs 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- KC -5.5
- ML KC -280 / NYG +230
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -6
- KC 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- KC: Elo 70.7%, market 70.9%
- Fair odds
- KC -243
- NYG +243 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 25.0 – 19.5 NYG
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | NYG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1589 | 1336 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +7 | +71 | KC: Patrick Mahomes · NYG: Russell Wilson, usually Daniel Jones (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | KC +153 Elo | KC 70.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 69.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 70.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 70.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| KC | Stat | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 3222.6 | Points scored | 16.131st of 32 |
| 4th of 3219.2 | Points allowed | 24.421st of 32 |
| 11th of 32+3.5 | Margin | −8.429th of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.11 | Yards per play | 4.7130th of 32 |
| 12th of 325.31 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6125th of 32 |
| 4th of 328–2 | Last 10 | 1–931st of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–2 | Road vs home | 1–832nd of 32 |
| 17th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 15282nd of 32 |
| 7th of 321589 | Elo rating | 133631st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  KC |  NYG |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–10 | 5–10 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 5–9 | — |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 5–10 |
| Overs–unders | 6–9 | 6–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.