Washington Commanders at Los Angeles Chargers, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Commanders- Jayden DanielsPassing15/26, 231 YDS, 1 TD
- Jacory Croskey-MerrittRushing14 CAR, 111 YDS, 2 TD
- Deebo Samuel Sr.Receiving8 REC, 96 YDS, 1 TD
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing22/29, 166 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Justin HerbertRushing4 CAR, 60 YDS
- Keenan AllenReceiving5 REC, 58 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:08Deebo Samuel 8 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Matt Gay Kick)27–10
- Q35:49Matt Gay 36 Yd Field Goal20–10
- Q310:58Jacory Croskey-Merritt 5 Yd Rush (Matt Gay Kick)17–10
- Q20:02Matt Gay 29 Yd Field Goal10–10
- Q24:15Jacory Croskey-Merritt 15 Yd Rush (Matt Gay Kick)7–10
- Q12:57Cameron Dicker 55 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q19:49Ladd McConkey 2 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:49Ladd McConkey 2 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)WSH 0 – 7 LAC · LAC 60% → 77% +16LAC 60% → 77%+16 pts
- Q24:15Jacory Croskey-Merritt 15 Yd Rush (Matt Gay Kick)WSH 7 – 10 LAC · WSH 15% → 32% +17WSH 15% → 32%+17 pts
- Q20:02Matt Gay 29 Yd Field GoalWSH 10 – 10 LAC · WSH 32% → 42% +10WSH 32% → 42%+10 pts
- Q310:58Jacory Croskey-Merritt 5 Yd Rush (Matt Gay Kick)WSH 17 – 10 LAC · WSH 43% → 69% +26WSH 43% → 69%+26 pts
- Q35:49Matt Gay 36 Yd Field GoalWSH 20 – 10 LAC · WSH 72% → 82% +10WSH 72% → 82%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chargers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -3.5
- ML WSH +150 / LAC -175
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -1
- LAC 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.4 pts
- LAC: Elo 54.0%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- LAC -155
- WSH +155 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 22.5 – 26.0 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 48.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1558 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +35 | +7 | WSH: Jayden Daniels · LAC: Justin Herbert (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +28 Elo | LAC 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 54.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 60.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| WSH | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 3226.8 | Points scored | 22.020th of 32 |
| 18th of 3222.8 | Points allowed | 17.83rd of 32 |
| 13th of 32+4.0 | Margin | +4.312th of 32 |
| 8th of 325.77 | Yards per play | 5.639th of 32 |
| 24th of 325.67 | Yards allowed per play | 4.503rd of 32 |
| 25th of 320–2 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 32 |
| 31st of 321426 | Opponent Elo | 147225th of 32 |
| 13th of 321538 | Elo rating | 155810th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  WSH |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–7 | 13–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–4 | 11–3 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 13–7 | 9–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.