Washington Commanders at Atlanta Falcons, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Commanders- Marcus MariotaPassing16/27, 156 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Chris Rodriguez Jr.Rushing7 CAR, 59 YDS
- Deebo Samuel Sr.Receiving6 REC, 72 YDS, 1 TD
Falcons- Michael Penix Jr.Passing20/26, 313 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Bijan RobinsonRushing17 CAR, 75 YDS, 1 TD
- Drake LondonReceiving8 REC, 110 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:29Matt Gay 42 Yd Field Goal27–34
- Q41:57Parker Romo 26 Yd Field Goal24–34
- Q48:48Deebo Samuel 24 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Marcus Mariota Pass to Zach Ertz for Two-Point Conversion)24–31
- Q30:14Tyler Allgeier 15 Yd Rush (Parker Romo Kick)16–31
- Q34:22Matt Gay 41 Yd Field Goal16–24
- Q39:25Kyle Pitts Sr. 7 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Parker Romo Kick)13–24
- Q310:12Matt Gay 52 Yd Field Goal13–17
- Q25:24Matt Gay 43 Yd Field Goal10–17
- Q28:27Bijan Robinson 14 Yd Rush (Parker Romo Kick)7–17
- Q211:31Luke McCaffrey 5 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Matt Gay Kick)7–10
- Q10:49Drake London 5 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Parker Romo Kick)0–10
- Q110:46Parker Romo 38 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q10:49Drake London 5 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Parker Romo Kick)WSH 0 – 10 ATL · ATL 63% → 80% +17ATL 63% → 80%+17 pts
- Q211:31Luke McCaffrey 5 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Matt Gay Kick)WSH 7 – 10 ATL · WSH 19% → 37% +17WSH 19% → 37%+17 pts
- Q28:27Bijan Robinson 14 Yd Rush (Parker Romo Kick)WSH 7 – 17 ATL · ATL 64% → 81% +18ATL 64% → 81%+18 pts
- Q39:25Kyle Pitts Sr. 7 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Parker Romo Kick)WSH 13 – 24 ATL · ATL 69% → 88% +19ATL 69% → 88%+19 pts
- Q30:14Tyler Allgeier 15 Yd Rush (Parker Romo Kick)WSH 16 – 31 ATL · ATL 86% → 97% +12ATL 86% → 97%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Falcons 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -2.5
- ML WSH +125 / ATL -145
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 41%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH -4
- ATL 35%
- Ratings vs. market
- −21.7 pts
- ATL: Elo 35.4%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -125
- WSH +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 21.0 – 23.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1573 | 1423 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −45 | −35 | WSH: Marcus Mariota, usually Jayden Daniels · ATL: Michael Penix Jr., usually Kirk Cousins (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +105 Elo | WSH 64.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 59.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 55.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| WSH | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 3226.7 | Points scored | 14.031st of 32 |
| 11th of 3219.0 | Points allowed | 19.712th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+7.7 | Margin | −5.722nd of 32 |
| 6th of 325.77 | Yards per play | 5.0821st of 32 |
| 17th of 325.29 | Yards allowed per play | 4.343rd of 32 |
| 18th of 320–1 | Road vs home | 0–122nd of 32 |
| 30th of 321425 | Opponent Elo | 150515th of 32 |
| 10th of 321573 | Elo rating | 142323rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  WSH |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–7 | 6–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–4 | 6–4 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 0–5 |
| Overs–unders | 13–7 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 2–0 ATL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.