Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing29/38, 264 YDS, 2 TD
- Kimani VidalRushing18 CAR, 124 YDS
- Ladd McConkeyReceiving7 REC, 100 YDS, 1 TD
Dolphins- Tua TagovailoaPassing21/32, 205 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- De'Von AchaneRushing16 CAR, 128 YDS, 2 TD
- Jaylen WaddleReceiving6 REC, 95 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:05Cameron Dicker 33 Yd Field Goal29–27
- Q40:46Darren Waller 7 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Riley Patterson Kick)26–27
- Q47:56De'Von Achane 4 Yd Rush (Riley Patterson Kick)26–20
- Q412:47Cameron Dicker 35 Yd Field Goal26–13
- Q33:55Kimani Vidal 7 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)23–13
- Q37:26Ladd McConkey 5 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)16–13
- Q20:00Riley Patterson 27 Yd Field Goal9–13
- Q24:30Riley Patterson 47 Yd Field Goal9–10
- Q28:39Cameron Dicker 29 Yd Field Goal9–7
- Q10:35Cameron Dicker 31 Yd Field Goal6–7
- Q14:03De'Von Achane 49 Yd Rush (Riley Patterson Kick)3–7
- Q17:52Cameron Dicker 35 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:03De'Von Achane 49 Yd Rush (Riley Patterson Kick)LAC 3 – 7 MIA · MIA 31% → 49% +19MIA 31% → 49%+19 pts
- Q37:26Ladd McConkey 5 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)LAC 16 – 13 MIA · LAC 42% → 69% +28LAC 42% → 69%+28 pts
- Q33:55Kimani Vidal 7 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)LAC 23 – 13 MIA · LAC 70% → 90% +21LAC 70% → 90%+21 pts
- Q40:46Darren Waller 7 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Riley Patterson Kick)LAC 26 – 27 MIA · MIA <1% → 70% +70MIA <1% → 70%+70 pts
- Q40:05Cameron Dicker 33 Yd Field GoalLAC 29 – 27 MIA · LAC 5% → >99% +95LAC 5% → >99%+95 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chargers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -3.5
- ML LAC -190 / MIA +160
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -2.5
- LAC 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- LAC: Elo 58.7%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- LAC -168
- MIA +168 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 24.5 – 21.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 45.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1408 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +6 | +20 | LAC: Justin Herbert · MIA: Tua Tagovailoa (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +61 Elo | LAC 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 58.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 62.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAC | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 3219.6 | Points scored | 21.420th of 32 |
| 6th of 3219.6 | Points allowed | 29.028th of 32 |
| 17th of 320.0 | Margin | −7.626th of 32 |
| 13th of 325.54 | Yards per play | 5.2422nd of 32 |
| 8th of 324.98 | Yards allowed per play | 6.3631st of 32 |
| 10th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 1–113th of 32 |
| 14th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 147124th of 32 |
| 16th of 321519 | Elo rating | 140825th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–2 | 2–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–2 | 2–3 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 1–4 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–4 | 4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 0–1 MIA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.