New York Jets at Miami Dolphins, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Justin FieldsPassing20/27, 226 YDS, 1 TD
- Justin FieldsRushing7 CAR, 81 YDS, 1 TD
- Garrett WilsonReceiving6 REC, 82 YDS, 1 TD
Dolphins- Tua TagovailoaPassing17/25, 177 YDS, 2 TD
- De'Von AchaneRushing20 CAR, 99 YDS, 1 TD
- Tyreek HillReceiving6 REC, 67 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:49Garrett Wilson 23 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Justin Fields Run for Two-Point Conversion)21–27
- Q43:33Riley Patterson 36 Yd Field Goal13–27
- Q413:09Nick Folk 50 Yd Field Goal13–24
- Q35:20De'Von Achane 9 Yd Rush (Riley Patterson Kick)10–24
- Q39:23Justin Fields 43 Yd Rush (Nick Folk Kick)10–17
- Q311:33Darren Waller 9 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Riley Patterson Kick)3–17
- Q20:00Nick Folk 58 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q29:20Darren Waller 4 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Riley Patterson Kick)0–10
- Q110:51Riley Patterson 47 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:51Riley Patterson 47 Yd Field GoalNYJ 0 – 3 MIA · MIA 58% → 65% +7MIA 58% → 65%+7 pts
- Q29:20Darren Waller 4 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Riley Patterson Kick)NYJ 0 – 10 MIA · MIA 65% → 83% +17MIA 65% → 83%+17 pts
- Q311:33Darren Waller 9 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Riley Patterson Kick)NYJ 3 – 17 MIA · MIA 79% → 93% +14MIA 79% → 93%+14 pts
- Q39:23Justin Fields 43 Yd Rush (Nick Folk Kick)NYJ 10 – 17 MIA · NYJ 7% → 21% +14NYJ 7% → 21%+14 pts
- Q35:20De'Von Achane 9 Yd Rush (Riley Patterson Kick)NYJ 10 – 24 MIA · MIA 81% → 95% +14MIA 81% → 95%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dolphins 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -2.5
- ML NYJ +130 / MIA -150
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -2
- MIA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- MIA: Elo 56.7%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- MIA -137
- NYJ +137 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYJ 20.5 – 23.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYJ | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1401 | 1408 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +16 | +21 | NYJ: Justin Fields, usually Aaron Rodgers · MIA: Tua Tagovailoa (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +47 Elo | MIA 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 57.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 57.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYJ | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 3223.0 | Points scored | 18.727th of 32 |
| 29th of 3231.0 | Points allowed | 32.330th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−8.0 | Margin | −13.730th of 32 |
| 25th of 324.74 | Yards per play | 5.3815th of 32 |
| 19th of 325.40 | Yards allowed per play | 6.1030th of 32 |
| 21st of 320–1 | Road vs home | 0–127th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321580 | Opponent Elo | 15359th of 32 |
| 26th of 321401 | Elo rating | 140825th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  NYJ |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–9 | 7–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders | 9–6 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYJ 1–3 MIA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.