New York Jets at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Tyrod TaylorPassing26/36, 197 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Tyrod TaylorRushing8 CAR, 48 YDS
- Garrett WilsonReceiving10 REC, 84 YDS, 1 TD
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing19/29, 233 YDS, 1 TD
- Bucky IrvingRushing25 CAR, 66 YDS
- Emeka EgbukaReceiving6 REC, 85 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Chase McLaughlin 36 Yd Field Goal27–29
- Q41:49Blocked Kick Recovered by Will McDonald IV (NYJ) Will McDonald 50 Yd Touchdown Return27–26
- Q43:40Allen Lazard 4 Yd pass from Tyrod Taylor (Nick Folk Kick)20–26
- Q46:13Chase McLaughlin 55 Yd Field Goal13–26
- Q410:12Garrett Wilson 11 Yd pass from Tyrod Taylor (Nick Folk Kick)13–23
- Q35:51Chase McLaughlin 28 Yd Field Goal6–23
- Q20:17Jamel Dean 55 Yd Interception Return (Chase McLaughlin Kick)6–20
- Q21:43Chase McLaughlin 33 Yd Field Goal6–13
- Q211:15Mike Evans 5 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)6–10
- Q214:01Nick Folk 42 Yd Field Goal6–3
- Q12:20Chase McLaughlin 54 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q18:51Nick Folk 38 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q214:01Nick Folk 42 Yd Field GoalNYJ 6 – 3 TB · NYJ 31% → 39% +8NYJ 31% → 39%+8 pts
- Q211:15Mike Evans 5 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)NYJ 6 – 10 TB · TB 60% → 78% +18TB 60% → 78%+18 pts
- Q20:17Jamel Dean 55 Yd Interception Return (Chase McLaughlin Kick)NYJ 6 – 20 TB · TB 85% → 95% +10TB 85% → 95%+10 pts
- Q41:49Blocked Kick Recovered by Will McDonald IV (NYJ) Will McDonald 50 Yd Touchdown ReturnNYJ 27 – 26 TB · NYJ 1% → 60% +59NYJ 1% → 60%+59 pts
- Q40:00Chase McLaughlin 36 Yd Field GoalNYJ 27 – 29 TB · TB 0% → 100% +100TB 0% → 100%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Buccaneers 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- TB -6.5
- ML NYJ +240 / TB -290
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB -8
- TB 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- TB: Elo 76.1%, market 71.7%
- Fair odds
- TB -257
- NYJ +257 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYJ 18.0 – 24.5 TB
- Posted spread, posted total 42.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYJ | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1407 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −19 | — | NYJ: Tyrod Taylor, usually Aaron Rodgers · TB: Baker Mayfield (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TB +202 Elo | TB 76.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 71.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 75.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 72.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYJ | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 3219.9 | Points scored | 29.54th of 32 |
| 20th of 3223.8 | Points allowed | 22.616th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−3.9 | Margin | +6.96th of 32 |
| 20th of 325.22 | Yards per play | 6.214th of 32 |
| 3rd of 324.99 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4618th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 32 |
| 22nd of 322–6 | Road vs home | 5–416th of 32 |
| 18th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 149521st of 32 |
| 24th of 321407 | Elo rating | 155411th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  NYJ |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–9 | 10–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–6 | 12–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.