Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing25/38, 215 YDS, 2 TD
- Bucky IrvingRushing17 CAR, 71 YDS
- Mike EvansReceiving5 REC, 56 YDS
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing13/24, 207 YDS, 1 TD
- Nick ChubbRushing12 CAR, 43 YDS, 1 TD
- Nico CollinsReceiving3 REC, 52 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:06Rachaad White 2 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)20–19
- Q42:10Nick Chubb 25 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)14–19
- Q45:22Ka'imi Fairbairn 53 Yd Field Goal14–13
- Q29:41Emeka Egbuka 15 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)14–10
- Q13:25Ka'imi Fairbairn 35 Yd Field Goal7–10
- Q17:12Ryan Miller 20 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)7–7
- Q111:53Nico Collins 29 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:12Ryan Miller 20 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 7 – 7 HOU · TB 25% → 42% +17TB 25% → 42%+17 pts
- Q29:41Emeka Egbuka 15 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 14 – 10 HOU · TB 34% → 56% +21TB 34% → 56%+21 pts
- Q45:22Ka'imi Fairbairn 53 Yd Field GoalTB 14 – 13 HOU · HOU 22% → 44% +22HOU 22% → 44%+22 pts
- Q42:10Nick Chubb 25 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)TB 14 – 19 HOU · HOU 39% → 95% +57HOU 39% → 95%+57 pts
- Q40:06Rachaad White 2 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)TB 20 – 19 HOU · TB <1% → 94% +94TB <1% → 94%+94 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Texans 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -2.5
- ML TB +135 / HOU -155
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -0.5
- HOU 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.8 pts
- HOU: Elo 51.1%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- HOU -140
- TB +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 20.0 – 22.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 42.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +4 | TB: Baker Mayfield · HOU: C.J. Stroud (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +7 Elo | HOU 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 50.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 58.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TB | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 3229.5 | Points scored | 21.919th of 32 |
| 16th of 3222.6 | Points allowed | 21.914th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+6.9 | Margin | 0.016th of 32 |
| 4th of 326.21 | Yards per play | 5.1421st of 32 |
| 18th of 325.46 | Yards allowed per play | 5.104th of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
| 10th of 325–3 | Road vs home | 5–311th of 32 |
| 20th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 149122nd of 32 |
| 13th of 321545 | Elo rating | 151216th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  TB |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–8 | 9–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 12–6 | 6–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 0–1 HOU in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.