Miami Dolphins at Carolina Panthers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dolphins- Tua TagovailoaPassing27/36, 256 YDS, 3 TD
- De'Von AchaneRushing10 CAR, 16 YDS
- Jaylen WaddleReceiving6 REC, 110 YDS, 1 TD
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing19/30, 198 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Rico DowdleRushing23 CAR, 206 YDS, 1 TD
- Tetairoa McMillanReceiving6 REC, 73 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:59Mitchell Evans 4 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)24–27
- Q44:42Jaylen Waddle 46 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Riley Patterson Kick)24–20
- Q46:10Rico Dowdle 1 Yd Rush (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)17–20
- Q312:15Ryan Fitzgerald 49 Yd Field Goal17–13
- Q20:00Ryan Fitzgerald 35 Yd Field Goal17–10
- Q23:24Xavier Legette 7 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)17–7
- Q210:48Darren Waller 4 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Riley Patterson Kick)17–0
- Q214:55De'Von Achane 10 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Riley Patterson Kick)10–0
- Q19:03Riley Patterson 43 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q214:55De'Von Achane 10 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Riley Patterson Kick)MIA 10 – 0 CAR · MIA 60% → 78% +18MIA 60% → 78%+18 pts
- Q210:48Darren Waller 4 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Riley Patterson Kick)MIA 17 – 0 CAR · MIA 79% → 91% +12MIA 79% → 91%+12 pts
- Q46:10Rico Dowdle 1 Yd Rush (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)MIA 17 – 20 CAR · CAR 21% → 72% +51CAR 21% → 72%+51 pts
- Q44:42Jaylen Waddle 46 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Riley Patterson Kick)MIA 24 – 20 CAR · MIA 25% → 82% +56MIA 25% → 82%+56 pts
- Q41:59Mitchell Evans 4 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)MIA 24 – 27 CAR · CAR 8% → 85% +77CAR 8% → 85%+77 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dolphins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -1.5
- ML MIA -115 / CAR -105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -2
- MIA 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.8 pts
- MIA: Elo 57.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIA -107
- CAR +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 23.0 – 21.5 CAR
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1428 | 1355 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +21 | +3 | MIA: Tua Tagovailoa · CAR: Bryce Young (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +55 Elo | MIA 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 57.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 51.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIA | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 3220.8 | Points scored | 18.826th of 32 |
| 26th of 3229.5 | Points allowed | 23.819th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−8.8 | Margin | −5.024th of 32 |
| 16th of 325.38 | Yards per play | 4.4827th of 32 |
| 30th of 326.34 | Yards allowed per play | 5.8228th of 32 |
| 21st of 320–2 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 32 |
| 17th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 145429th of 32 |
| 24th of 321428 | Elo rating | 135529th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  MIA |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–8 | 7–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 3–5 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders | 8–7 | 12–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 1–0 CAR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.