Arizona Cardinals at Indianapolis Colts, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Jacoby BrissettPassing27/44, 320 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Bam KnightRushing11 CAR, 34 YDS, 1 TD
- Zay JonesReceiving5 REC, 79 YDS
Colts- Daniel JonesPassing22/30, 212 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Jonathan TaylorRushing21 CAR, 123 YDS, 1 TD
- Tyler WarrenReceiving6 REC, 63 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q44:32Jonathan Taylor 1 Yd Rush (Michael Badgley Kick)27–31
- Q49:31Chad Ryland 44 Yd Field Goal27–24
- Q413:12Josh Downs 5 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Michael Badgley Kick)24–24
- Q31:22Greg Dortch 12 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Chad Ryland Kick)24–17
- Q34:31Michael Badgley 45 Yd Field Goal17–17
- Q38:39Trey McBride 1 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Chad Ryland Kick)17–14
- Q21:56Chad Ryland 40 Yd Field Goal10–14
- Q27:51Daniel Jones 3 Yd Rush (Michael Badgley Kick)7–14
- Q11:42Bam Knight 1 Yd Rush (Chad Ryland Kick)7–7
- Q111:01Tyler Warren 8 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Michael Badgley Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:39Trey McBride 1 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Chad Ryland Kick)ARI 17 – 14 IND · ARI 19% → 43% +24ARI 19% → 43%+24 pts
- Q31:22Greg Dortch 12 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Chad Ryland Kick)ARI 24 – 17 IND · ARI 35% → 67% +33ARI 35% → 67%+33 pts
- Q413:12Josh Downs 5 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Michael Badgley Kick)ARI 24 – 24 IND · IND 28% → 64% +36IND 28% → 64%+36 pts
- Q49:31Chad Ryland 44 Yd Field GoalARI 27 – 24 IND · ARI 38% → 57% +19ARI 38% → 57%+19 pts
- Q44:32Jonathan Taylor 1 Yd Rush (Michael Badgley Kick)ARI 27 – 31 IND · IND 32% → 87% +55IND 32% → 87%+55 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Colts 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- IND -8.5
- ML ARI +320 / IND -425
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -8.5
- IND 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- IND: Elo 77.6%, market 77.3%
- Fair odds
- IND -340
- ARI +340 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 19.0 – 27.5 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1437 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −83 | +4 | ARI: Jacoby Brissett, usually Kyler Murray · IND: Daniel Jones, usually Anthony Richardson Sr. (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +216 Elo | IND 77.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 77.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 77.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 77.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ARI | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 3220.6 | Points scored | 32.62nd of 32 |
| 4th of 3219.2 | Points allowed | 17.83rd of 32 |
| 15th of 32+1.4 | Margin | +14.81st of 32 |
| 26th of 324.79 | Yards per play | 6.292nd of 32 |
| 11th of 325.14 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2513th of 32 |
| 10th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 32 |
| 31st of 321433 | Opponent Elo | 144130th of 32 |
| 24th of 321437 | Elo rating | 153014th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–3 | 4–1 |
| Last 10 | 2–3 | 4–1 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 3–0 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.