Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Kyler MurrayPassing22/35, 159 YDS, 1 TD
- Trey BensonRushing10 CAR, 42 YDS
- Marvin Harrison Jr.Receiving3 REC, 44 YDS
49ers- Mac JonesPassing27/41, 284 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Christian McCaffreyRushing17 CAR, 52 YDS
- Ricky PearsallReceiving8 REC, 117 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Eddy Pineiro 35 Yd Field Goal15–16
- Q43:15Defensive Holding in Endzone for Safety15–13
- Q48:37Trey McBride 1 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Chad Ryland Kick)13–13
- Q410:50Kyle Juszczyk 1 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Eddy Pineiro Kick)6–13
- Q36:37Chad Ryland 28 Yd Field Goal6–6
- Q20:17Eddy Pineiro 51 Yd Field Goal3–6
- Q24:22Eddy Pineiro 38 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q28:45Chad Ryland 34 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:37Chad Ryland 28 Yd Field GoalARI 6 – 6 SF · ARI 36% → 49% +12ARI 36% → 49%+12 pts
- Q410:50Kyle Juszczyk 1 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Eddy Pineiro Kick)ARI 6 – 13 SF · SF 51% → 86% +35SF 51% → 86%+35 pts
- Q48:37Trey McBride 1 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Chad Ryland Kick)ARI 13 – 13 SF · ARI 12% → 49% +37ARI 12% → 49%+37 pts
- Q43:15Defensive Holding in Endzone for SafetyARI 15 – 13 SF · ARI 49% → 70% +21ARI 49% → 70%+21 pts
- Q40:00Eddy Pineiro 35 Yd Field GoalARI 15 – 16 SF · SF 0% → 100% +100SF 0% → 100%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
49ers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- SF -1.5
- ML ARI +105 / SF -125
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 42%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI -2.5
- SF 40%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.8 pts
- SF: Elo 40.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SF -110
- ARI +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 21.0 – 22.5 SF
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +20 | −125 | ARI: Kyler Murray · SF: Mac Jones, usually Brock Purdy (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +67 Elo | ARI 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 58.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 52.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ARI | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 3223.5 | Points scored | 22.913th of 32 |
| 15th of 3222.3 | Points allowed | 25.629th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+1.2 | Margin | −2.820th of 32 |
| 7th of 325.88 | Yards per play | 6.232nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.57 | Yards allowed per play | 5.247th of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 32 |
| 22nd of 322–6 | Road vs home | 4–518th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321528 | Opponent Elo | 15282nd of 32 |
| 19th of 321479 | Elo rating | 152215th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  ARI |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–6 | 3–11 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 4–4 | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 0–4 |
| Overs–unders | 8–8 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 2–2 SF in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.