Tennessee Titans at Arizona Cardinals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ARI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Titans- Cam WardPassing21/39, 265 YDS, 1 INT
- Tony PollardRushing14 CAR, 67 YDS, 1 TD
- Calvin RidleyReceiving5 REC, 131 YDS
Cardinals- Kyler MurrayPassing23/31, 220 YDS
- Emari DemercadoRushing3 CAR, 81 YDS
- Marvin Harrison Jr.Receiving4 REC, 98 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Joey Slye 29 Yd Field Goal22–21
- Q44:39Tyler Lockett 0 Yd Fumble Recovery (Joey Slye Kick)19–21
- Q410:26Tony Pollard 1 Yd Rush (Joey Slye PAT Failed)12–21
- Q28:29Joey Slye 51 Yd Field Goal6–21
- Q210:43Bam Knight 1 Yd Rush (Chad Ryland Kick)3–21
- Q10:39Kyler Murray 12 Yd Rush (Chad Ryland Kick)3–14
- Q15:00Joey Slye 44 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q110:54Michael Carter 1 Yd Rush (Chad Ryland Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:54Michael Carter 1 Yd Rush (Chad Ryland Kick)TEN 0 – 7 ARI · ARI 78% → 89% +11ARI 78% → 89%+11 pts
- Q10:39Kyler Murray 12 Yd Rush (Chad Ryland Kick)TEN 3 – 14 ARI · ARI 84% → 93% +10ARI 84% → 93%+10 pts
- Q210:43Bam Knight 1 Yd Rush (Chad Ryland Kick)TEN 3 – 21 ARI · ARI 93% → 98% +5ARI 93% → 98%+5 pts
- Q44:39Tyler Lockett 0 Yd Fumble Recovery (Joey Slye Kick)TEN 19 – 21 ARI · TEN 1% → 25% +24TEN 1% → 25%+24 pts
- Q40:00Joey Slye 29 Yd Field GoalTEN 22 – 21 ARI · TEN 0% → 100% +100TEN 0% → 100%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- ARI -7.5
- ML TEN +340 / ARI -450
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI -10.5
- ARI 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.4 pts
- ARI: Elo 81.6%, market 78.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -366
- TEN +366 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEN 17.0 – 24.5 ARI
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEN | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1287 | 1453 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −40 | +16 | TEN: Cam Ward, usually Will Levis · ARI: Kyler Murray (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +259 Elo | ARI 81.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 71.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 79.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 78.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TEN | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 3212.8 | Points scored | 20.524th of 32 |
| 29th of 3230.0 | Points allowed | 18.57th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−17.3 | Margin | +2.016th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.66 | Yards per play | 4.5728th of 32 |
| 29th of 325.94 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1714th of 32 |
| 24th of 320–2 | Road vs home | 1–114th of 32 |
| 4th of 321555 | Opponent Elo | 147126th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321287 | Elo rating | 145323rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  TEN |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–14 | 10–6 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–6 | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 2–8 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders | 10–6 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.