Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ARI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Seahawks- Sam DarnoldPassing18/26, 242 YDS, 1 TD
- Kenneth Walker IIIRushing19 CAR, 81 YDS
- Jaxon Smith-NjigbaReceiving4 REC, 79 YDS
Cardinals- Kyler MurrayPassing27/41, 200 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Kyler MurrayRushing5 CAR, 41 YDS
- Marvin Harrison Jr.Receiving6 REC, 66 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Jason Myers 52 Yd Field Goal23–20
- Q40:28Emari Demercado 7 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Chad Ryland Kick)20–20
- Q45:50Marvin Harrison Jr. 16 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Chad Ryland Kick)20–13
- Q49:33Jason Myers 31 Yd Field Goal20–6
- Q31:39Chad Ryland 57 Yd Field Goal17–6
- Q38:56Jason Myers 44 Yd Field Goal17–3
- Q21:01Zach Charbonnet 1 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)14–3
- Q11:33AJ Barner 16 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)7–3
- Q14:37Chad Ryland 33 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:37Chad Ryland 33 Yd Field GoalSEA 0 – 3 ARI · ARI 46% → 54% +8ARI 46% → 54%+8 pts
- Q11:33AJ Barner 16 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 7 – 3 ARI · SEA 45% → 65% +20SEA 45% → 65%+20 pts
- Q21:01Zach Charbonnet 1 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 14 – 3 ARI · SEA 67% → 85% +19SEA 67% → 85%+19 pts
- Q40:28Emari Demercado 7 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Chad Ryland Kick)SEA 20 – 20 ARI · ARI <1% → 50% +50ARI <1% → 50%+50 pts
- Q40:00Jason Myers 52 Yd Field GoalSEA 23 – 20 ARI · SEA 52% → 100% +48SEA 52% → 100%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Seahawks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- SEA -1.5
- ML SEA -130 / ARI +110
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA -1.5
- SEA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- SEA: Elo 55.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -119
- ARI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 22.5 – 21.0 ARI
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1562 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −3 | +19 | SEA: Sam Darnold, usually Geno Smith · ARI: Kyler Murray (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +36 Elo | SEA 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 54.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SEA | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 3229.3 | Points scored | 20.719th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3215.7 | Points allowed | 17.05th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+13.7 | Margin | +3.713th of 32 |
| 9th of 325.63 | Yards per play | 4.7924th of 32 |
| 7th of 324.65 | Yards allowed per play | 4.9112th of 32 |
| 1st of 321–0 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 32 |
| 23rd of 321467 | Opponent Elo | 143328th of 32 |
| 11th of 321562 | Elo rating | 146919th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  SEA |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–10 | 10–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–8 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 4–0 ARI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.