Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Titans- Cam WardPassing22/38, 259 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Tyjae SpearsRushing9 CAR, 59 YDS, 1 TD
- Chimere DikeReceiving7 REC, 93 YDS
Colts- Daniel JonesPassing21/29, 272 YDS, 3 TD
- Jonathan TaylorRushing12 CAR, 153 YDS, 2 TD
- Michael Pittman Jr.Receiving8 REC, 95 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q42:36Tyjae Spears 3 Yd Rush (Joey Slye Kick)14–38
- Q414:22Jonathan Taylor 19 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Michael Badgley Kick)7–38
- Q35:12Josh Downs 10 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Michael Badgley Kick)7–31
- Q311:10Jonathan Taylor 80 Yd Rush (Michael Badgley Kick)7–24
- Q27:44Michael Pittman Jr. 21 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Michael Badgley Kick)7–17
- Q211:14Gunnar Helm 1 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Joey Slye Kick)7–10
- Q10:09Jonathan Taylor 18 Yd Rush (Michael Badgley Kick)0–10
- Q19:43Michael Badgley 43 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:43Michael Badgley 43 Yd Field GoalTEN 0 – 3 IND · IND 88% → 91% +4IND 88% → 91%+4 pts
- Q10:09Jonathan Taylor 18 Yd Rush (Michael Badgley Kick)TEN 0 – 10 IND · IND 90% → 96% +6IND 90% → 96%+6 pts
- Q211:14Gunnar Helm 1 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Joey Slye Kick)TEN 7 – 10 IND · TEN 4% → 11% +7TEN 4% → 11%+7 pts
- Q27:44Michael Pittman Jr. 21 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Michael Badgley Kick)TEN 7 – 17 IND · IND 89% → 96% +7IND 89% → 96%+7 pts
- Q311:10Jonathan Taylor 80 Yd Rush (Michael Badgley Kick)TEN 7 – 24 IND · IND 96% → >99% +3IND 96% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Colts 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 93.3% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- IND -14.5
- ML TEN +750 / IND -1400
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 89%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -15.5
- IND 90%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- IND: Elo 90.1%, market 88.8%
- Fair odds
- IND -801
- TEN +801 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEN 16.5 – 31.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEN | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1269 | 1575 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −30 | +10 | TEN: Cam Ward, usually Will Levis · IND: Daniel Jones, usually Anthony Richardson Sr. (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +383 Elo | IND 90.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 83.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 88.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 88.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TEN | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 3213.7 | Points scored | 33.11st of 32 |
| 28th of 3227.4 | Points allowed | 20.07th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−13.7 | Margin | +13.11st of 32 |
| 32nd of 324.07 | Yards per play | 6.351st of 32 |
| 25th of 325.65 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4520th of 32 |
| 21st of 321–3 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 32 |
| 14th of 321511 | Opponent Elo | 145430th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321269 | Elo rating | 157511th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEN |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–5 | 5–2 |
| Last 10 | 2–5 | 5–2 |
| Favorite | — | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 2–5 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 4–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEN 0–5 IND in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.