New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Patriots- Drake MayePassing21/23, 222 YDS, 2 TD
- Rhamondre StevensonRushing18 CAR, 88 YDS, 1 TD
- Stefon DiggsReceiving7 REC, 69 YDS
Titans- Cam WardPassing25/34, 255 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Tyjae SpearsRushing5 CAR, 22 YDS
- Chimere DikeReceiving4 REC, 70 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q37:20K'Lavon Chaisson 4 Yd Fumble Recovery (Andy Borregales Kick)31–13
- Q37:31Rhamondre Stevenson 4 Yd Rush (Andy Borregales Kick)24–13
- Q20:49Kayshon Boutte 39 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)17–13
- Q21:48Joey Slye 50 Yd Field Goal10–13
- Q25:34Austin Hooper 3 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)10–10
- Q15:04Chimere Dike 38 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Joey Slye Kick)3–10
- Q16:46Andy Borregales 36 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q112:20Joey Slye 49 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:04Chimere Dike 38 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Joey Slye Kick)NE 3 – 10 TEN · TEN 30% → 49% +18TEN 30% → 49%+18 pts
- Q25:34Austin Hooper 3 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)NE 10 – 10 TEN · NE 44% → 67% +22NE 44% → 67%+22 pts
- Q21:48Joey Slye 50 Yd Field GoalNE 10 – 13 TEN · TEN 34% → 44% +10TEN 34% → 44%+10 pts
- Q20:49Kayshon Boutte 39 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)NE 17 – 13 TEN · NE 56% → 77% +22NE 56% → 77%+22 pts
- Q37:31Rhamondre Stevenson 4 Yd Rush (Andy Borregales Kick)NE 24 – 13 TEN · NE 77% → 93% +15NE 77% → 93%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Patriots 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- NE -6.5
- ML NE -280 / TEN +230
- Pre-line forecast
- NE 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NE -8
- NE 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.8 pts
- NE: Elo 76.6%, market 70.9%
- Fair odds
- NE -249
- TEN +249 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NE 24.0 – 17.5 TEN
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NE | TEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1285 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +24 | −35 | NE: Drake Maye · TEN: Cam Ward, usually Will Levis (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NE +206 Elo | NE 76.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NE 67.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NE 74.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NE 71.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NE | Stat | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 3225.0 | Points scored | 13.831st of 32 |
| 7th of 3220.0 | Points allowed | 26.826th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+5.0 | Margin | −13.032nd of 32 |
| 14th of 325.66 | Yards per play | 3.9432nd of 32 |
| 26th of 325.69 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5822nd of 32 |
| 1st of 323–0 | Road vs home | 0–231st of 32 |
| 32nd of 321437 | Opponent Elo | 150813th of 32 |
| 21st of 321468 | Elo rating | 128532nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NE |  TEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–2 | 2–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–2 | 2–4 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | — |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 2–4 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–4 | 3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NE 0–1 TEN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.