Tennessee Titans at Las Vegas Raiders, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LV; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Titans- Cam WardPassing26/38, 222 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Tony PollardRushing10 CAR, 34 YDS
- Van JeffersonReceiving4 REC, 75 YDS
Raiders- Geno SmithPassing17/23, 174 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Ashton JeantyRushing23 CAR, 75 YDS, 1 TD
- Tre TuckerReceiving5 REC, 70 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q43:03David Martin-Robinson 1 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Matthew Wright Kick)10–20
- Q47:14Daniel Carlson 29 Yd Field Goal3–20
- Q31:06Matthew Wright 46 Yd Field Goal3–17
- Q37:04Ashton Jeanty 3 Yd Rush (Daniel Carlson Kick)0–17
- Q25:13Michael Mayer 4 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Daniel Carlson Kick)0–10
- Q14:07Daniel Carlson 50 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:07Daniel Carlson 50 Yd Field GoalTEN 0 – 3 LV · LV 63% → 71% +8LV 63% → 71%+8 pts
- Q25:13Michael Mayer 4 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Daniel Carlson Kick)TEN 0 – 10 LV · LV 70% → 87% +16LV 70% → 87%+16 pts
- Q37:04Ashton Jeanty 3 Yd Rush (Daniel Carlson Kick)TEN 0 – 17 LV · LV 90% → 98% +8LV 90% → 98%+8 pts
- Q31:06Matthew Wright 46 Yd Field GoalTEN 3 – 17 LV · TEN 1% → 3% +2TEN 1% → 3%+2 pts
- Q47:14Daniel Carlson 29 Yd Field GoalTEN 3 – 20 LV · LV >99% → >99% +0LV >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raiders 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- LV -4.5
- ML TEN +170 / LV -200
- Pre-line forecast
- LV 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LV -5
- LV 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- LV: Elo 67.9%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- LV -182
- TEN +182 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEN 18.5 – 23.0 LV
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEN | LV | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1303 | 1319 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −36 | +43 | TEN: Cam Ward, usually Will Levis · LV: Geno Smith, usually Aidan O'Connell (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LV +131 Elo | LV 67.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LV 63.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LV 66.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LV 64.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TEN | Stat | LV |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 3214.6 | Points scored | 16.630th of 32 |
| 26th of 3228.2 | Points allowed | 27.825th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−13.6 | Margin | −11.230th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.96 | Yards per play | 5.2721st of 32 |
| 29th of 325.88 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5121st of 32 |
| 17th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 0–230th of 32 |
| 5th of 321536 | Opponent Elo | 151512th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321303 | Elo rating | 131931st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEN |  LV |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–3 | 1–4 |
| Last 10 | 2–3 | 1–4 |
| Favorite | — | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 2–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.