New England Patriots at New Orleans Saints, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Patriots- Drake MayePassing18/26, 261 YDS, 3 TD
- Drake MayeRushing9 CAR, 28 YDS
- Kayshon BoutteReceiving5 REC, 93 YDS, 2 TD
Saints- Spencer RattlerPassing20/26, 227 YDS
- Alvin KamaraRushing10 CAR, 31 YDS
- Chris OlaveReceiving6 REC, 98 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q413:41Blake Grupe 54 Yd Field Goal25–19
- Q37:26Andy Borregales 24 Yd Field Goal25–16
- Q20:31Kayshon Boutte 29 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Drake Maye Run for Two-Point Conversion)22–16
- Q21:51Blake Grupe 38 Yd Field Goal14–16
- Q29:42Taysom Hill 1 Yd Rush (Blake Grupe Kick)14–13
- Q10:33Kayshon Boutte 25 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)14–6
- Q15:05Blake Grupe 48 Yd Field Goal7–6
- Q110:52DeMario Douglas 53 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)7–3
- Q112:50Blake Grupe 34 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:52DeMario Douglas 53 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)NE 7 – 3 NO · NE 56% → 72% +17NE 56% → 72%+17 pts
- Q10:33Kayshon Boutte 25 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)NE 14 – 6 NO · NE 65% → 81% +16NE 65% → 81%+16 pts
- Q29:42Taysom Hill 1 Yd Rush (Blake Grupe Kick)NE 14 – 13 NO · NO 18% → 36% +18NO 18% → 36%+18 pts
- Q21:51Blake Grupe 38 Yd Field GoalNE 14 – 16 NO · NO 37% → 47% +10NO 37% → 47%+10 pts
- Q20:31Kayshon Boutte 29 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Drake Maye Run for Two-Point Conversion)NE 22 – 16 NO · NE 53% → 78% +25NE 53% → 78%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Patriots 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- NE -3.5
- ML NE -195 / NO +165
- Pre-line forecast
- NE 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NE -3.5
- NE 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- NE: Elo 62.9%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- NE -175
- NO +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NE 25.0 – 21.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NE | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1450 | 1398 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +20 | −55 | NE: Drake Maye · NO: Spencer Rattler, usually Derek Carr (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NE +92 Elo | NE 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NE 64.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NE 63.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NE 63.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NE | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 3225.0 | Points scored | 18.428th of 32 |
| 9th of 3220.2 | Points allowed | 27.024th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+4.8 | Margin | −8.628th of 32 |
| 10th of 325.65 | Yards per play | 4.6129th of 32 |
| 24th of 325.67 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2614th of 32 |
| 1st of 322–0 | Road vs home | 1–224th of 32 |
| 29th of 321452 | Opponent Elo | 151611th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321450 | Elo rating | 139827th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NE |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–2 | 2–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–2 | 2–3 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 2–3 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–3 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NE 0–1 NO in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.