New York Giants at New Orleans Saints, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Jaxson DartPassing26/40, 202 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Cam SkatteboRushing15 CAR, 59 YDS
- Daniel BellingerReceiving4 REC, 52 YDS
Saints- Spencer RattlerPassing21/31, 225 YDS, 1 TD
- Kendre MillerRushing10 CAR, 41 YDS
- Rashid ShaheedReceiving4 REC, 114 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q414:47Jordan Howden 86 Yd Fumble Recovery (Blake Grupe Kick)14–26
- Q36:55Blake Grupe 28 Yd Field Goal14–19
- Q20:00Blake Grupe 29 Yd Field Goal14–16
- Q25:16Rashid Shaheed 87 Yd pass from Spencer Rattler (Blake Grupe Kick)14–13
- Q27:41Blake Grupe 53 Yd Field Goal14–6
- Q213:01Theo Johnson 15 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Jude McAtamney Kick)14–3
- Q11:40Blake Grupe 28 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q19:34Theo Johnson 1 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Jude McAtamney Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:34Theo Johnson 1 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Jude McAtamney Kick)NYG 7 – 0 NO · NYG 45% → 63% +18NYG 45% → 63%+18 pts
- Q213:01Theo Johnson 15 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Jude McAtamney Kick)NYG 14 – 3 NO · NYG 57% → 76% +19NYG 57% → 76%+19 pts
- Q25:16Rashid Shaheed 87 Yd pass from Spencer Rattler (Blake Grupe Kick)NYG 14 – 13 NO · NO 29% → 51% +22NO 29% → 51%+22 pts
- Q36:55Blake Grupe 28 Yd Field GoalNYG 14 – 19 NO · NO 61% → 73% +11NO 61% → 73%+11 pts
- Q414:47Jordan Howden 86 Yd Fumble Recovery (Blake Grupe Kick)NYG 14 – 26 NO · NO 76% → 94% +19NO 76% → 94%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Saints 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- NO -2.5
- ML NYG +115 / NO -135
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -2
- NO 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- NO: Elo 56.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NO -124
- NYG +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYG 20.0 – 22.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 42.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYG | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1352 | 1371 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −54 | −64 | NYG: Jaxson Dart, usually Daniel Jones · NO: Spencer Rattler, usually Derek Carr (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +45 Elo | NO 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 56.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NO 55.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYG | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 3218.3 | Points scored | 16.528th of 32 |
| 24th of 3225.3 | Points allowed | 30.330th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−7.0 | Margin | −13.830th of 32 |
| 24th of 324.93 | Yards per play | 4.4428th of 32 |
| 27th of 325.73 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4019th of 32 |
| 21st of 320–2 | Road vs home | 0–228th of 32 |
| 6th of 321547 | Opponent Elo | 15623rd of 32 |
| 30th of 321352 | Elo rating | 137127th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  NYG |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–10 | 6–10 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | — | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 5–10 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders | 6–9 | 7–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYG 0–2 NO in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.