Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Packers- Jordan LovePassing29/37, 360 YDS, 3 TD
- Emanuel WilsonRushing11 CAR, 61 YDS
- Tucker KraftReceiving7 REC, 143 YDS, 2 TD
Steelers- Aaron RodgersPassing24/36, 219 YDS, 2 TD
- Jaylen WarrenRushing13 CAR, 62 YDS
- Roman WilsonReceiving4 REC, 74 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q42:07Roman Wilson 21 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)35–25
- Q43:59Brandon McManus 25 Yd Field Goal35–19
- Q45:28Brandon McManus 28 Yd Field Goal32–19
- Q410:57Tucker Kraft 24 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)29–19
- Q414:55Josh Jacobs 3 Yd Rush (Jordan Love Pass to Romeo Doubs for Two-Point Conversion)22–19
- Q35:34Chris Boswell 56 Yd Field Goal14–19
- Q38:48Savion Williams 8 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)14–16
- Q20:34DK Metcalf 2 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)7–16
- Q25:52Chris Boswell 48 Yd Field Goal7–9
- Q212:18Chris Boswell 50 Yd Field Goal7–6
- Q15:05Tucker Kraft 16 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)7–3
- Q18:41Chris Boswell 56 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:05Tucker Kraft 16 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)GB 7 – 3 PIT · GB 49% → 68% +19GB 49% → 68%+19 pts
- Q20:34DK Metcalf 2 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)GB 7 – 16 PIT · PIT 51% → 74% +23PIT 51% → 74%+23 pts
- Q38:48Savion Williams 8 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)GB 14 – 16 PIT · GB 22% → 47% +25GB 22% → 47%+25 pts
- Q414:55Josh Jacobs 3 Yd Rush (Jordan Love Pass to Romeo Doubs for Two-Point Conversion)GB 22 – 19 PIT · GB 30% → 68% +39GB 30% → 68%+39 pts
- Q410:57Tucker Kraft 24 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)GB 29 – 19 PIT · GB 70% → 94% +24GB 70% → 94%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Packers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- GB -2.5
- ML GB -150 / PIT +130
- Pre-line forecast
- GB 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GB -2.5
- GB 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- GB: Elo 59.6%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- GB -139
- PIT +139 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GB 24.0 – 21.5 PIT
- Posted spread, posted total 45.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GB | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1621 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +5 | +16 | GB: Jordan Love · PIT: Aaron Rodgers, usually Russell Wilson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GB +68 Elo | GB 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GB 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GB 59.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GB 58.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| GB | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 3226.3 | Points scored | 25.012th of 32 |
| 9th of 3220.8 | Points allowed | 23.320th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+5.5 | Margin | +1.714th of 32 |
| 12th of 325.67 | Yards per play | 5.4616th of 32 |
| 1st of 324.48 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4018th of 32 |
| 11th of 321–1–1 | Road vs home | 1–119th of 32 |
| 21st of 321490 | Opponent Elo | 146826th of 32 |
| 6th of 321621 | Elo rating | 150617th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GB |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–4 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 2–4 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | — | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GB 0–1 PIT in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.