Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ARI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Packers- Jordan LovePassing19/29, 179 YDS, 1 TD
- Josh JacobsRushing13 CAR, 55 YDS, 2 TD
- Romeo DoubsReceiving6 REC, 72 YDS
Cardinals- Jacoby BrissettPassing25/36, 279 YDS, 2 TD
- Bam KnightRushing14 CAR, 57 YDS
- Trey McBrideReceiving10 REC, 74 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:50Josh Jacobs 1 Yd Rush (Lucas Havrisik Kick)27–23
- Q49:01Chad Ryland 39 Yd Field Goal20–23
- Q414:55Tucker Kraft 7 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Lucas Havrisik Kick)20–20
- Q34:17Trey McBride 12 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Chad Ryland Kick)13–20
- Q39:47Josh Jacobs 7 Yd Rush (Lucas Havrisik Kick)13–13
- Q20:00Lucas Havrisik 61 Yd Field Goal6–13
- Q20:07Trey McBride 15 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Chad Ryland Kick)3–13
- Q25:02Chad Ryland 40 Yd Field Goal3–6
- Q29:06Lucas Havrisik 31 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q17:34Chad Ryland 32 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q20:07Trey McBride 15 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Chad Ryland Kick)GB 3 – 13 ARI · ARI 43% → 67% +24ARI 43% → 67%+24 pts
- Q39:47Josh Jacobs 7 Yd Rush (Lucas Havrisik Kick)GB 13 – 13 ARI · GB 39% → 66% +27GB 39% → 66%+27 pts
- Q34:17Trey McBride 12 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Chad Ryland Kick)GB 13 – 20 ARI · ARI 36% → 66% +30ARI 36% → 66%+30 pts
- Q414:55Tucker Kraft 7 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Lucas Havrisik Kick)GB 20 – 20 ARI · GB 29% → 62% +34GB 29% → 62%+34 pts
- Q41:50Josh Jacobs 1 Yd Rush (Lucas Havrisik Kick)GB 27 – 23 ARI · GB 17% → 94% +77GB 17% → 94%+77 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Packers 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- GB -6.5
- ML GB -320 / ARI +260
- Pre-line forecast
- GB 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GB -9
- GB 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.7 pts
- GB: Elo 78.0%, market 73.3%
- Fair odds
- GB -280
- ARI +280 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GB 25.5 – 19.0 ARI
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GB | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1613 | 1429 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +5 | −68 | GB: Jordan Love · ARI: Jacoby Brissett, usually Kyler Murray (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GB +220 Elo | GB 78.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GB 78.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GB 78.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GB 73.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| GB | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 3226.2 | Points scored | 21.719th of 32 |
| 9th of 3220.4 | Points allowed | 21.212th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+5.8 | Margin | +0.516th of 32 |
| 8th of 325.80 | Yards per play | 4.9626th of 32 |
| 1st of 324.43 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2910th of 32 |
| 21st of 320–1–1 | Road vs home | 1–222nd of 32 |
| 10th of 321510 | Opponent Elo | 145528th of 32 |
| 4th of 321613 | Elo rating | 142924th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GB |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–3 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 2–3 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | — | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 2–3 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–3 | 3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GB 1–0 ARI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.