Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing15/34, 250 YDS, 1 INT
- Kareem HuntRushing11 CAR, 49 YDS, 1 TD
- Rashee RiceReceiving4 REC, 80 YDS
Bills- Josh AllenPassing23/26, 273 YDS, 1 TD
- James Cook IIIRushing27 CAR, 114 YDS
- Dalton KincaidReceiving6 REC, 101 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q411:32Kareem Hunt 2 Yd Rush (Patrick Mahomes Pass to Travis Kelce for Two-Point Conversion)21–28
- Q31:34Josh Allen 1 Yd Rush (Matt Prater Kick)13–28
- Q20:03Harrison Butker 19 Yd Field Goal13–21
- Q21:33Josh Allen 1 Yd Rush (Matt Prater Kick)10–21
- Q26:39Ty Johnson 3 Yd Rush (Matt Prater Kick)10–14
- Q29:27Harrison Butker 46 Yd Field Goal10–7
- Q214:56Rashee Rice 3 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker Kick)7–7
- Q18:00Dalton Kincaid 23 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Matt Prater Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:00Dalton Kincaid 23 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Matt Prater Kick)KC 0 – 7 BUF · BUF 45% → 63% +18BUF 45% → 63%+18 pts
- Q214:56Rashee Rice 3 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker Kick)KC 7 – 7 BUF · KC 35% → 55% +20KC 35% → 55%+20 pts
- Q26:39Ty Johnson 3 Yd Rush (Matt Prater Kick)KC 10 – 14 BUF · BUF 36% → 58% +22BUF 36% → 58%+22 pts
- Q21:33Josh Allen 1 Yd Rush (Matt Prater Kick)KC 10 – 21 BUF · BUF 60% → 80% +21BUF 60% → 80%+21 pts
- Q411:32Kareem Hunt 2 Yd Rush (Patrick Mahomes Pass to Travis Kelce for Two-Point Conversion)KC 21 – 28 BUF · KC 2% → 17% +15KC 2% → 17%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chiefs 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- KC -2.5
- ML KC -135 / BUF +119
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -1
- KC 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- KC: Elo 53.1%, market 55.7%
- Fair odds
- KC -125
- BUF +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 28.0 – 25.5 BUF
- Posted spread, posted total 53.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1676 | 1625 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +6 | — | KC: Patrick Mahomes · BUF: Josh Allen (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | KC +21 Elo | KC 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 51.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 55.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| KC | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 3226.8 | Points scored | 29.64th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3216.4 | Points allowed | 20.99th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+10.4 | Margin | +8.74th of 32 |
| 8th of 325.81 | Yards per play | 6.122nd of 32 |
| 14th of 325.25 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4419th of 32 |
| 14th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 3–15th of 32 |
| 13th of 321512 | Opponent Elo | 143231st of 32 |
| 1st of 321676 | Elo rating | 16255th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–3 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–3 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | 4–2 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 3–5 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5 | 4–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 2–2 BUF in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.