Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors KC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raiders- Geno SmithPassing10/16, 67 YDS
- Ashton JeantyRushing6 CAR, 21 YDS
- Tre TuckerReceiving5 REC, 33 YDS
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing26/35, 286 YDS, 3 TD
- Isiah PachecoRushing15 CAR, 57 YDS, 1 TD
- Travis KelceReceiving3 REC, 54 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q32:36Harrison Butker 38 Yd Field Goal0–31
- Q39:00Isiah Pacheco 7 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker Kick)0–28
- Q20:10Rashee Rice 3 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)0–21
- Q29:17Hollywood Brown 8 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)0–14
- Q15:58Rashee Rice 2 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:58Rashee Rice 2 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)LV 0 – 7 KC · KC 84% → 93% +9KC 84% → 93%+9 pts
- Q29:17Hollywood Brown 8 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)LV 0 – 14 KC · KC 92% → 98% +5KC 92% → 98%+5 pts
- Q20:10Rashee Rice 3 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)LV 0 – 21 KC · KC 98% → >99% +2KC 98% → >99%+2 pts
- Q39:00Isiah Pacheco 7 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker Kick)LV 0 – 28 KC · KC >99% → >99% +0KC >99% → >99%+0 pts
- Q32:36Harrison Butker 38 Yd Field GoalLV 0 – 31 KC · KC >99% → >99% +0KC >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chiefs 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 93.3% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- KC -13.5
- ML LV +600 / KC -1000
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -12.5
- KC 86%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- KC: Elo 86.1%, market 86.4%
- Fair odds
- KC -635
- LV +635 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LV 16.0 – 29.5 KC
- Posted spread, posted total 45.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LV | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1337 | 1652 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +40 | +6 | LV: Geno Smith, usually Aidan O'Connell · KC: Patrick Mahomes (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | KC +317 Elo | KC 86.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 82.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 85.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 86.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LV | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 3217.2 | Points scored | 25.89th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3224.8 | Points allowed | 20.710th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−7.7 | Margin | +5.210th of 32 |
| 24th of 325.07 | Yards per play | 5.7311th of 32 |
| 10th of 325.23 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4819th of 32 |
| 17th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 2–19th of 32 |
| 24th of 321477 | Opponent Elo | 15358th of 32 |
| 31st of 321337 | Elo rating | 16521st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LV |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–4 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 2–4 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 2–4 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–4 | 3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LV 1–3 KC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.