Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors KC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lions- Jared GoffPassing23/29, 203 YDS, 2 TD
- Jahmyr GibbsRushing17 CAR, 65 YDS
- Jameson WilliamsReceiving6 REC, 66 YDS, 1 TD
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing22/30, 257 YDS, 3 TD
- Isiah PachecoRushing12 CAR, 51 YDS
- Travis KelceReceiving6 REC, 78 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:26Harrison Butker 33 Yd Field Goal17–30
- Q49:30Hollywood Brown 3 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)17–27
- Q414:14Sam LaPorta 4 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)17–20
- Q311:18Hollywood Brown 9 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)10–20
- Q20:37Patrick Mahomes 1 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker Kick)10–13
- Q212:49Jameson Williams 22 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)10–6
- Q11:11Xavier Worthy 6 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker PAT Failed)3–6
- Q15:21Jake Bates 28 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q212:49Jameson Williams 22 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)DET 10 – 6 KC · DET 36% → 56% +20DET 36% → 56%+20 pts
- Q20:37Patrick Mahomes 1 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker Kick)DET 10 – 13 KC · KC 41% → 65% +24KC 41% → 65%+24 pts
- Q311:18Hollywood Brown 9 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)DET 10 – 20 KC · KC 65% → 85% +20KC 65% → 85%+20 pts
- Q414:14Sam LaPorta 4 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)DET 17 – 20 KC · DET 9% → 32% +24DET 9% → 32%+24 pts
- Q49:30Hollywood Brown 3 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)DET 17 – 27 KC · KC 70% → 95% +25KC 70% → 95%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chiefs 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- KC -2.5
- ML DET +125 / KC -145
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -1
- KC 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.6 pts
- KC: Elo 46.5%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- KC -129
- DET +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 24.5 – 27.0 KC
- Posted spread, posted total 51.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1683 | 1616 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +6 | DET: Jared Goff · KC: Patrick Mahomes (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +25 Elo | DET 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 56.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DET | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 3234.8 | Points scored | 25.010th of 32 |
| 17th of 3222.4 | Points allowed | 21.414th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+12.4 | Margin | +3.612th of 32 |
| 7th of 325.96 | Yards per play | 5.7310th of 32 |
| 11th of 325.19 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4520th of 32 |
| 8th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 1–114th of 32 |
| 21st of 321486 | Opponent Elo | 15198th of 32 |
| 1st of 321683 | Elo rating | 16164th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–1 | 2–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–1 | 2–3 |
| Favorite | 3–0 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 1–0 KC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.