Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors JAX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing29/41, 318 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Patrick MahomesRushing6 CAR, 60 YDS, 1 TD
- Tyquan ThorntonReceiving3 REC, 90 YDS
Jaguars- Trevor LawrencePassing18/25, 221 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Trevor LawrenceRushing10 CAR, 54 YDS, 2 TD
- Brian Thomas Jr.Receiving4 REC, 80 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:23Trevor Lawrence 1 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)28–31
- Q41:45Kareem Hunt 2 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker Kick)28–24
- Q48:08Cam Little 52 Yd Field Goal21–24
- Q412:20Kareem Hunt 5 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker Kick)21–21
- Q32:19Devin Lloyd 99 Yd Interception Return (Cam Little Kick)14–21
- Q38:40Trevor Lawrence 10 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)14–14
- Q22:38Parker Washington 3 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)14–7
- Q210:44Patrick Mahomes 9 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker Kick)14–0
- Q14:02Travis Kelce 2 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:40Trevor Lawrence 10 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)KC 14 – 14 JAX · JAX 18% → 42% +24JAX 18% → 42%+24 pts
- Q32:19Devin Lloyd 99 Yd Interception Return (Cam Little Kick)KC 14 – 21 JAX · JAX 43% → 74% +31JAX 43% → 74%+31 pts
- Q412:20Kareem Hunt 5 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker Kick)KC 21 – 21 JAX · KC 20% → 56% +35KC 20% → 56%+35 pts
- Q41:45Kareem Hunt 2 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker Kick)KC 28 – 24 JAX · KC 15% → 94% +79KC 15% → 94%+79 pts
- Q40:23Trevor Lawrence 1 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)KC 28 – 31 JAX · JAX <1% → >99% +99JAX <1% → >99%+99 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chiefs 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- KC -3.5
- ML KC -185 / JAX +155
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -4.5
- KC 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- KC: Elo 65.4%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- KC -167
- JAX +167 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 24.5 – 21.0 JAX
- Posted spread, posted total 45.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | JAX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1640 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +6 | +12 | KC: Patrick Mahomes · JAX: Trevor Lawrence (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | KC +110 Elo | KC 65.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 63.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 62.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| KC | Stat | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 3224.3 | Points scored | 24.016th of 32 |
| 5th of 3219.0 | Points allowed | 18.04th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+5.3 | Margin | +6.08th of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.27 | Yards per play | 5.3218th of 32 |
| 18th of 325.35 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1010th of 32 |
| 1st of 321–0 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 32 |
| 6th of 321528 | Opponent Elo | 147624th of 32 |
| 4th of 321640 | Elo rating | 148818th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  KC |  JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–10 | 8–6 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–9 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 6–9 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 1–0 JAX in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.