Jacksonville Jaguars at San Francisco 49ers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jaguars- Trevor LawrencePassing21/31, 174 YDS, 1 TD
- Travis Etienne Jr.Rushing19 CAR, 124 YDS, 1 TD
- Brian Thomas Jr.Receiving5 REC, 49 YDS
49ers- Brock PurdyPassing22/38, 309 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Christian McCaffreyRushing17 CAR, 49 YDS
- Christian McCaffreyReceiving6 REC, 92 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q47:41Jake Tonges 21 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro Kick)26–21
- Q32:22Parker Washington 87 Yd Punt Return (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)26–14
- Q34:07Cam Little 44 Yd Field Goal20–14
- Q38:32Christian McCaffrey 8 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Brock Purdy Pass to Jauan Jennings for Two-Point Conversion)17–14
- Q20:00Cam Little 26 Yd Field Goal17–6
- Q20:40Eddy Pineiro 23 Yd Field Goal14–6
- Q25:01Hunter Long 4 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)14–3
- Q214:41Travis Etienne Jr. 48 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)7–3
- Q18:33Eddy Pineiro 26 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q214:41Travis Etienne Jr. 48 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)JAX 7 – 3 SF · JAX 32% → 52% +20JAX 32% → 52%+20 pts
- Q25:01Hunter Long 4 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)JAX 14 – 3 SF · JAX 54% → 75% +21JAX 54% → 75%+21 pts
- Q38:32Christian McCaffrey 8 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Brock Purdy Pass to Jauan Jennings for Two-Point Conversion)JAX 17 – 14 SF · SF 18% → 45% +27SF 18% → 45%+27 pts
- Q32:22Parker Washington 87 Yd Punt Return (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)JAX 26 – 14 SF · JAX 71% → 89% +19JAX 71% → 89%+19 pts
- Q47:41Jake Tonges 21 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro Kick)JAX 26 – 21 SF · SF 2% → 22% +20SF 2% → 22%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
49ers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- SF -3.5
- ML JAX +145 / SF -170
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF -5
- SF 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.6 pts
- SF: Elo 67.3%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- SF -158
- JAX +158 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- JAX 21.5 – 25.0 SF
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | JAX | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +14 | +28 | JAX: Trevor Lawrence · SF: Brock Purdy (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SF +125 Elo | SF 67.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 73.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 68.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 61.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| JAX | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 3223.3 | Points scored | 19.722nd of 32 |
| 5th of 3217.0 | Points allowed | 16.33rd of 32 |
| 6th of 32+6.3 | Margin | +3.314th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.37 | Yards per play | 5.3615th of 32 |
| 10th of 324.74 | Yards allowed per play | 4.404th of 32 |
| 18th of 320–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 32 |
| 27th of 321451 | Opponent Elo | 146721st of 32 |
| 20th of 321456 | Elo rating | 153214th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  JAX |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–6 | 3–11 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 0–4 |
| Overs–unders | 7–7 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
JAX 0–1 SF in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.