Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors JAX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing25/38, 204 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Nick ChubbRushing9 CAR, 38 YDS
- Nico CollinsReceiving8 REC, 104 YDS, 1 TD
Jaguars- Trevor LawrencePassing20/40, 222 YDS, 1 INT
- Travis Etienne Jr.Rushing16 CAR, 56 YDS, 1 TD
- Brenton StrangeReceiving6 REC, 61 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:48Travis Etienne Jr. 10 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)10–17
- Q49:17Nico Collins 50 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)10–10
- Q36:23Cam Little 39 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q26:54Ka'imi Fairbairn 27 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q12:06Bhayshul Tuten 1 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:06Bhayshul Tuten 1 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)HOU 0 – 7 JAX · JAX 52% → 71% +19JAX 52% → 71%+19 pts
- Q26:54Ka'imi Fairbairn 27 Yd Field GoalHOU 3 – 7 JAX · HOU 27% → 35% +8HOU 27% → 35%+8 pts
- Q36:23Cam Little 39 Yd Field GoalHOU 3 – 10 JAX · JAX 68% → 78% +10JAX 68% → 78%+10 pts
- Q49:17Nico Collins 50 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)HOU 10 – 10 JAX · HOU 13% → 49% +36HOU 13% → 49%+36 pts
- Q41:48Travis Etienne Jr. 10 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)HOU 10 – 17 JAX · JAX 50% → >99% +49JAX 50% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jaguars 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- JAX -1.5
- ML HOU +105 / JAX -125
- Pre-line forecast
- JAX 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -1
- JAX 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- JAX: Elo 46.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- JAX -112
- HOU +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 20.5 – 22.0 JAX
- Posted spread, posted total 42.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | JAX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1428 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +4 | +17 | HOU: C.J. Stroud · JAX: Trevor Lawrence (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +25 Elo | HOU 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | JAX 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 51.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | JAX 52.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| HOU | Stat | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 3221.9 | Points scored | 18.826th of 32 |
| 14th of 3221.9 | Points allowed | 25.627th of 32 |
| 16th of 320.0 | Margin | −6.825th of 32 |
| 21st of 325.14 | Yards per play | 5.2518th of 32 |
| 4th of 325.10 | Yards allowed per play | 5.8931st of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–4 | Road vs home | 2–525th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321491 | Opponent Elo | 148327th of 32 |
| 17th of 321503 | Elo rating | 142822nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  HOU |  JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–8 | 8–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 6–11 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 3–1 JAX in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.