Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors KC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing14/20, 147 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Justice HillRushing3 CAR, 76 YDS, 1 TD
- Zay FlowersReceiving7 REC, 74 YDS
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing25/37, 270 YDS, 4 TD
- Xavier WorthyRushing2 CAR, 38 YDS
- Xavier WorthyReceiving5 REC, 83 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:56Justice Hill 71 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)20–37
- Q413:15Hollywood Brown 15 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)13–37
- Q31:06Harrison Butker 31 Yd Field Goal13–30
- Q37:22Tyler Loop 32 Yd Field Goal13–27
- Q311:51Tyquan Thornton 11 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)10–27
- Q20:00Tyler Loop 43 Yd Field Goal10–20
- Q21:41Isiah Pacheco 8 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)7–20
- Q24:00JuJu Smith-Schuster 4 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)7–13
- Q210:00Harrison Butker 23 Yd Field Goal7–6
- Q15:40Harrison Butker 38 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q19:35Justice Hill 11 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Tyler Loop Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:35Justice Hill 11 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Tyler Loop Kick)BAL 7 – 0 KC · BAL 56% → 73% +17BAL 56% → 73%+17 pts
- Q210:00Harrison Butker 23 Yd Field GoalBAL 7 – 6 KC · KC 33% → 42% +9KC 33% → 42%+9 pts
- Q24:00JuJu Smith-Schuster 4 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)BAL 7 – 13 KC · KC 42% → 65% +23KC 42% → 65%+23 pts
- Q21:41Isiah Pacheco 8 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)BAL 7 – 20 KC · KC 66% → 84% +19KC 66% → 84%+19 pts
- Q311:51Tyquan Thornton 11 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)BAL 10 – 27 KC · KC 80% → 93% +13KC 80% → 93%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ravens 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- BAL -2.5
- ML BAL -145 / KC +125
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -1
- BAL 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.2 pts
- BAL: Elo 45.9%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- BAL -129
- KC +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 26.0 – 23.5 KC
- Posted spread, posted total 49.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1618 | 1607 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +3 | +7 | BAL: Lamar Jackson · KC: Patrick Mahomes (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | KC +29 Elo | KC 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 52.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 56.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BAL | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 3237.0 | Points scored | 20.021st of 32 |
| 31st of 3232.0 | Points allowed | 18.77th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+5.0 | Margin | +1.317th of 32 |
| 2nd of 326.32 | Yards per play | 5.2019th of 32 |
| 26th of 325.76 | Yards allowed per play | 4.9212th of 32 |
| 19th of 320–1 | Road vs home | 0–126th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321578 | Opponent Elo | 15546th of 32 |
| 4th of 321618 | Elo rating | 16075th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  BAL |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–7 | 5–10 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 10–7 | 5–9 |
| Underdog | — | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 13–4 | 6–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 0–2 KC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.