Buffalo Bills at Carolina Panthers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bills- Josh AllenPassing12/19, 163 YDS, 1 TD
- James Cook IIIRushing19 CAR, 216 YDS, 2 TD
- Khalil ShakirReceiving6 REC, 88 YDS, 1 TD
Panthers- Andy DaltonPassing16/24, 175 YDS, 1 INT
- Rico DowdleRushing8 CAR, 54 YDS
- Tetairoa McMillanReceiving7 REC, 99 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q410:33Chuba Hubbard 3 Yd Rush (Ryan Fitzgerald PAT Failed)40–9
- Q31:19Josh Allen 1 Yd Rush (Matt Prater Kick)40–3
- Q34:59James Cook III 21 Yd Rush (Matt Prater Kick)33–3
- Q312:18Khalil Shakir 54 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Matt Prater Kick)26–3
- Q21:50Josh Allen 1 Yd Run (Matt Prater Kick)19–3
- Q27:23James Cook III 64 Yd Rush (Matt Prater PAT Failed)12–3
- Q28:58Ryan Fitzgerald 48 Yd Field Goal6–3
- Q213:03Matt Prater 43 Yd Field Goal6–0
- Q17:14Matt Prater 45 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:14Matt Prater 45 Yd Field GoalBUF 3 – 0 CAR · BUF 74% → 81% +6BUF 74% → 81%+6 pts
- Q213:03Matt Prater 43 Yd Field GoalBUF 6 – 0 CAR · BUF 79% → 85% +6BUF 79% → 85%+6 pts
- Q28:58Ryan Fitzgerald 48 Yd Field GoalBUF 6 – 3 CAR · CAR 15% → 21% +6CAR 15% → 21%+6 pts
- Q27:23James Cook III 64 Yd Rush (Matt Prater PAT Failed)BUF 12 – 3 CAR · BUF 79% → 90% +11BUF 79% → 90%+11 pts
- Q21:50Josh Allen 1 Yd Run (Matt Prater Kick)BUF 19 – 3 CAR · BUF 90% → 97% +7BUF 90% → 97%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bills 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- BUF -7.5
- ML BUF -400 / CAR +300
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -7
- BUF 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- BUF: Elo 72.8%, market 76.2%
- Fair odds
- BUF -316
- CAR +316 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 28.0 – 20.5 CAR
- Posted spread, posted total 48.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1603 | 1424 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | −28 | BUF: Josh Allen · CAR: Andy Dalton, usually Bryce Young (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +171 Elo | BUF 72.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 77.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 74.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 75.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BUF | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 3227.8 | Points scored | 20.723rd of 32 |
| 17th of 3222.8 | Points allowed | 21.713th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+5.0 | Margin | −1.020th of 32 |
| 4th of 326.01 | Yards per play | 5.0025th of 32 |
| 25th of 325.66 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2912th of 32 |
| 11th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 32 |
| 31st of 321421 | Opponent Elo | 143030th of 32 |
| 7th of 321603 | Elo rating | 142424th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–4 | 5–2 |
| Last 10 | 2–4 | 5–2 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | — |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 4–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.