Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cowboys- Dak PrescottPassing25/34, 261 YDS, 3 TD
- Javonte WilliamsRushing13 CAR, 29 YDS
- George PickensReceiving9 REC, 168 YDS, 1 TD
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing17/25, 199 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Rico DowdleRushing30 CAR, 183 YDS
- Rico DowdleReceiving4 REC, 56 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Ryan Fitzgerald 33 Yd Field Goal27–30
- Q49:20Brandon Aubrey 28 Yd Field Goal27–27
- Q412:20Tetairoa McMillan 2 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)24–27
- Q32:38George Pickens 34 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)24–20
- Q313:19Rico Dowdle 36 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)17–20
- Q20:20Ryan Fitzgerald 55 Yd Field Goal17–13
- Q23:39Jake Ferguson 19 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)17–10
- Q211:29Tetairoa McMillan 19 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)10–10
- Q214:56Hunter Luepke 3 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)10–3
- Q14:48Brandon Aubrey 23 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q19:08Ryan Fitzgerald 31 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q23:39Jake Ferguson 19 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 17 – 10 CAR · DAL 57% → 78% +21DAL 57% → 78%+21 pts
- Q313:19Rico Dowdle 36 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)DAL 17 – 20 CAR · CAR 30% → 55% +25CAR 30% → 55%+25 pts
- Q32:38George Pickens 34 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 24 – 20 CAR · DAL 41% → 72% +31DAL 41% → 72%+31 pts
- Q412:20Tetairoa McMillan 2 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)DAL 24 – 27 CAR · CAR 25% → 62% +37CAR 25% → 62%+37 pts
- Q40:00Ryan Fitzgerald 33 Yd Field GoalDAL 27 – 30 CAR · CAR 46% → 100% +54CAR 46% → 100%+54 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cowboys 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -2.5
- ML DAL -155 / CAR +135
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -4
- DAL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.4 pts
- DAL: Elo 64.2%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- DAL -145
- CAR +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 24.0 – 21.5 CAR
- Posted spread, posted total 45.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1375 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +35 | +3 | DAL: Dak Prescott · CAR: Bryce Young (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +102 Elo | DAL 64.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 62.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 59.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DAL | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 3230.2 | Points scored | 20.424th of 32 |
| 30th of 3230.8 | Points allowed | 23.818th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.6 | Margin | −3.422nd of 32 |
| 5th of 326.12 | Yards per play | 4.8825th of 32 |
| 30th of 326.13 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6023rd of 32 |
| 18th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 32 |
| 21st of 321490 | Opponent Elo | 145328th of 32 |
| 19th of 321481 | Elo rating | 137528th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–2 | 3–2 |
| Last 10 | 3–2 | 3–2 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | — |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 2–0 CAR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.