Carolina Panthers at New York Jets, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing15/25, 138 YDS, 1 TD
- Rico DowdleRushing17 CAR, 79 YDS
- Xavier LegetteReceiving9 REC, 92 YDS, 1 TD
Jets- Tyrod TaylorPassing10/22, 126 YDS, 2 INT
- Breece HallRushing11 CAR, 38 YDS
- Tyler JohnsonReceiving3 REC, 60 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q46:26Nick Folk 47 Yd Field Goal13–6
- Q310:40Ryan Fitzgerald 29 Yd Field Goal13–3
- Q21:11Xavier Legette 3 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)10–3
- Q211:02Nick Folk 34 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q15:42Ryan Fitzgerald 30 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:42Ryan Fitzgerald 30 Yd Field GoalCAR 3 – 0 NYJ · CAR 51% → 59% +8CAR 51% → 59%+8 pts
- Q211:02Nick Folk 34 Yd Field GoalCAR 3 – 3 NYJ · NYJ 40% → 49% +9NYJ 40% → 49%+9 pts
- Q21:11Xavier Legette 3 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)CAR 10 – 3 NYJ · CAR 51% → 74% +23CAR 51% → 74%+23 pts
- Q310:40Ryan Fitzgerald 29 Yd Field GoalCAR 13 – 3 NYJ · CAR 76% → 84% +8CAR 76% → 84%+8 pts
- Q46:26Nick Folk 47 Yd Field GoalCAR 13 – 6 NYJ · NYJ 3% → 9% +6NYJ 3% → 9%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- NYJ -1.5
- ML CAR -115 / NYJ -105
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR -0.5
- CAR 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- CAR: Elo 51.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CAR -105
- NYJ +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 19.0 – 20.5 NYJ
- Posted spread, posted total 39.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | NYJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1399 | 1346 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +3 | +7 | CAR: Bryce Young · NYJ: Justin Fields, usually Aaron Rodgers (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +13 Elo | CAR 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYJ 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYJ 50.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 51.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CAR | Stat | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 3222.0 | Points scored | 20.525th of 32 |
| 21st of 3224.3 | Points allowed | 28.328th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−2.3 | Margin | −7.827th of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.13 | Yards per play | 4.6830th of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.59 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4920th of 32 |
| 26th of 320–3 | Road vs home | 0–331st of 32 |
| 28th of 321452 | Opponent Elo | 15269th of 32 |
| 26th of 321399 | Elo rating | 134630th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–2 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–2 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | — | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–2 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–2 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.