Denver Broncos at New York Jets, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Broncos- Bo NixPassing19/30, 174 YDS, 1 TD
- J.K. DobbinsRushing14 CAR, 40 YDS
- Evan EngramReceiving5 REC, 42 YDS
Jets- Justin FieldsPassing9/17, 45 YDS
- Breece HallRushing22 CAR, 59 YDS
- Josh ReynoldsReceiving3 REC, 25 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q45:06Wil Lutz 27 Yd Field Goal13–11
- Q34:56Offensive Holding enforced in end zone for a Safety10–11
- Q310:25Nick Folk 38 Yd Field Goal10–9
- Q10:00Nate Adkins 16 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)10–6
- Q14:55Nick Folk 41 Yd Field Goal3–6
- Q17:03Wil Lutz 57 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q111:00Nick Folk 52 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:55Nick Folk 41 Yd Field GoalDEN 3 – 6 NYJ · NYJ 27% → 35% +7NYJ 27% → 35%+7 pts
- Q10:00Nate Adkins 16 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)DEN 10 – 6 NYJ · DEN 64% → 81% +17DEN 64% → 81%+17 pts
- Q310:25Nick Folk 38 Yd Field GoalDEN 10 – 9 NYJ · NYJ 21% → 30% +9NYJ 21% → 30%+9 pts
- Q34:56Offensive Holding enforced in end zone for a SafetyDEN 10 – 11 NYJ · NYJ 31% → 39% +8NYJ 31% → 39%+8 pts
- Q45:06Wil Lutz 27 Yd Field GoalDEN 13 – 11 NYJ · DEN 49% → 73% +24DEN 49% → 73%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Broncos 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -6.5
- ML DEN -340 / NYJ +270
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -9
- DEN 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.8 pts
- DEN: Elo 78.9%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- DEN -292
- NYJ +292 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 25.0 – 18.5 NYJ
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | NYJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1602 | 1351 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Quarterbacks | +1 | +23 | DEN: Bo Nix · NYJ: Justin Fields, usually Aaron Rodgers (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +229 Elo | DEN 78.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 70.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 77.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 74.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DEN | Stat | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 3223.4 | Points scored | 22.419th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3216.8 | Points allowed | 31.431st of 32 |
| 7th of 32+6.6 | Margin | −9.028th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.50 | Yards per play | 5.2921st of 32 |
| 6th of 324.81 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7125th of 32 |
| 20th of 321492 | Opponent Elo | 152310th of 32 |
| 5th of 321602 | Elo rating | 135130th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Last 10 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 1–4 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–4 | 4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 1–1 NYJ in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.