Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Broncos- Bo NixPassing24/39, 242 YDS, 1 TD
- J.K. DobbinsRushing20 CAR, 79 YDS, 1 TD
- Courtland SuttonReceiving8 REC, 99 YDS
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing23/38, 280 YDS, 2 TD
- Saquon BarkleyRushing6 CAR, 30 YDS
- DeVonta SmithReceiving8 REC, 114 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:11Wil Lutz 36 Yd Field Goal21–17
- Q47:36Evan Engram 11 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Bo Nix Pass to Troy Franklin for Two-Point Conversion)18–17
- Q413:11J.K. Dobbins 2 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)10–17
- Q313:23Saquon Barkley 47 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)3–17
- Q27:20Dallas Goedert 2 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)3–10
- Q10:29Jake Elliott 31 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q16:49Wil Lutz 55 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:20Dallas Goedert 2 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)DEN 3 – 10 PHI · PHI 65% → 82% +18PHI 65% → 82%+18 pts
- Q313:23Saquon Barkley 47 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)DEN 3 – 17 PHI · PHI 83% → 95% +11PHI 83% → 95%+11 pts
- Q413:11J.K. Dobbins 2 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)DEN 10 – 17 PHI · DEN 2% → 12% +10DEN 2% → 12%+10 pts
- Q47:36Evan Engram 11 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Bo Nix Pass to Troy Franklin for Two-Point Conversion)DEN 18 – 17 PHI · DEN 8% → 50% +42DEN 8% → 50%+42 pts
- Q41:11Wil Lutz 36 Yd Field GoalDEN 21 – 17 PHI · DEN 65% → 96% +31DEN 65% → 96%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Eagles 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -4.5
- ML DEN +195 / PHI -230
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -9
- PHI 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- +11.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 78.7%, market 67.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -215
- DEN +215 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 20.0 – 24.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1567 | 1750 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | 0 | +8 | DEN: Bo Nix · PHI: Jalen Hurts (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +227 Elo | PHI 78.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 64.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 75.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 68.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DEN | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 3224.0 | Points scored | 27.07th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3216.8 | Points allowed | 22.015th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+7.3 | Margin | +5.010th of 32 |
| 10th of 325.60 | Yards per play | 4.1730th of 32 |
| 7th of 324.66 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4018th of 32 |
| 21st of 320–2 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 32 |
| 26th of 321459 | Opponent Elo | 15515th of 32 |
| 9th of 321567 | Elo rating | 17501st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  DEN |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–5 | 13–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–0 | 9–6 |
| Underdog | 3–5 | 4–0 |
| Overs–unders | 10–6 | 9–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.