Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing15/24, 130 YDS, 2 TD
- Jalen HurtsRushing9 CAR, 62 YDS
- Dallas GoedertReceiving4 REC, 37 YDS, 2 TD
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing22/40, 289 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Bucky IrvingRushing15 CAR, 63 YDS
- Bucky IrvingReceiving5 REC, 102 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Kaevon Merriweather Safety31–25
- Q412:16Chase McLaughlin 58 Yd Field Goal31–23
- Q32:10Bucky Irving 72 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)31–20
- Q33:51Saquon Barkley 6 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)31–13
- Q39:51Emeka Egbuka 77 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)24–13
- Q20:00Chase McLaughlin 65 Yd Field Goal24–6
- Q20:58Jake Elliott 39 Yd Field Goal24–3
- Q26:10Dallas Goedert 5 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)21–3
- Q10:00Chase McLaughlin 42 Yd Field Goal14–3
- Q17:08Dallas Goedert 2 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)14–0
- Q112:51Sydney Brown 35 yd. return of blocked punt (J.Elliott kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q112:51Sydney Brown 35 yd. return of blocked punt (J.Elliott kick)PHI 7 – 0 TB · PHI 62% → 77% +15PHI 62% → 77%+15 pts
- Q17:08Dallas Goedert 2 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 14 – 0 TB · PHI 78% → 89% +11PHI 78% → 89%+11 pts
- Q26:10Dallas Goedert 5 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 21 – 3 TB · PHI 87% → 96% +8PHI 87% → 96%+8 pts
- Q39:51Emeka Egbuka 77 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)PHI 24 – 13 TB · TB 3% → 10% +8TB 3% → 10%+8 pts
- Q33:51Saquon Barkley 6 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 31 – 13 TB · PHI 92% → 99% +7PHI 92% → 99%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Eagles 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -3.5
- ML PHI -175 / TB +150
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -6
- PHI 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 70.3%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- PHI -164
- TB +164 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 23.5 – 20.0 TB
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1737 | 1560 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +9 | — | PHI: Jalen Hurts · TB: Baker Mayfield (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +150 Elo | PHI 70.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 68.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 62.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PHI | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 3225.7 | Points scored | 24.012th of 32 |
| 15th of 3221.0 | Points allowed | 22.017th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+4.7 | Margin | +2.015th of 32 |
| 27th of 324.40 | Yards per play | 5.0422nd of 32 |
| 18th of 325.35 | Yards allowed per play | 4.9513th of 32 |
| 1st of 321–0 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 32 |
| 8th of 321545 | Opponent Elo | 143329th of 32 |
| 1st of 321737 | Elo rating | 156012th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  PHI |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–6 | 10–8 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–6 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 4–0 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–10 | 12–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 1–2 TB in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.