Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bills- Josh AllenPassing15/26, 180 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- James Cook IIIRushing17 CAR, 87 YDS
- Joshua PalmerReceiving2 REC, 60 YDS
Falcons- Michael Penix Jr.Passing20/32, 250 YDS, 1 TD
- Bijan RobinsonRushing19 CAR, 170 YDS, 1 TD
- Drake LondonReceiving10 REC, 158 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:43Parker Romo 33 Yd Field Goal14–24
- Q39:23Ray Davis 16 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Matt Prater Kick)14–21
- Q211:09Bijan Robinson 81 Yd Rush (Parker Romo Kick)7–21
- Q10:26Drake London 9 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Parker Romo Kick)7–14
- Q18:01Dawson Knox 19 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Matt Prater Kick)7–7
- Q112:15Tyler Allgeier 21 Yd Rush (Parker Romo Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q112:15Tyler Allgeier 21 Yd Rush (Parker Romo Kick)BUF 0 – 7 ATL · ATL 35% → 53% +18ATL 35% → 53%+18 pts
- Q18:01Dawson Knox 19 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Matt Prater Kick)BUF 7 – 7 ATL · BUF 46% → 64% +18BUF 46% → 64%+18 pts
- Q10:26Drake London 9 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Parker Romo Kick)BUF 7 – 14 ATL · ATL 37% → 57% +20ATL 37% → 57%+20 pts
- Q211:09Bijan Robinson 81 Yd Rush (Parker Romo Kick)BUF 7 – 21 ATL · ATL 58% → 77% +19ATL 58% → 77%+19 pts
- Q39:23Ray Davis 16 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Matt Prater Kick)BUF 14 – 21 ATL · BUF 13% → 33% +20BUF 13% → 33%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bills 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- BUF -3.5
- ML BUF -200 / ATL +170
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -7
- BUF 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.4 pts
- BUF: Elo 73.7%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- BUF -186
- ATL +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 26.5 – 23.0 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 49.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1651 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | −22 | BUF: Josh Allen · ATL: Michael Penix Jr., usually Kirk Cousins (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +179 Elo | BUF 73.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 64.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 71.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 65.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BUF | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 3230.6 | Points scored | 19.027th of 32 |
| 17th of 3222.6 | Points allowed | 21.516th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+8.0 | Margin | −2.522nd of 32 |
| 4th of 326.11 | Yards per play | 5.5014th of 32 |
| 19th of 325.41 | Yards allowed per play | 4.695th of 32 |
| 1st of 321–0 | Road vs home | 1–115th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321426 | Opponent Elo | 15348th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321651 | Elo rating | 145822nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  BUF |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–7 | 6–9 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–4 | 6–4 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 0–5 |
| Overs–unders | 12–5 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.