Washington Commanders at Kansas City Chiefs, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors KC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Commanders- Marcus MariotaPassing21/30, 213 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Marcus MariotaRushing8 CAR, 28 YDS
- Jeremy McNicholsReceiving5 REC, 64 YDS
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing25/34, 299 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- Isiah PachecoRushing12 CAR, 58 YDS
- Travis KelceReceiving6 REC, 99 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q47:52Rashee Rice 18 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)7–28
- Q33:20Travis Kelce 10 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)7–21
- Q310:12Kareem Hunt 2 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)7–14
- Q20:58Terry McLaurin 11 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Matthew Wright Kick)7–7
- Q25:46Kareem Hunt 1 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:46Kareem Hunt 1 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker Kick)WSH 0 – 7 KC · KC 75% → 89% +14KC 75% → 89%+14 pts
- Q20:58Terry McLaurin 11 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Matthew Wright Kick)WSH 7 – 7 KC · WSH 11% → 26% +16WSH 11% → 26%+16 pts
- Q310:12Kareem Hunt 2 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)WSH 7 – 14 KC · KC 72% → 89% +18KC 72% → 89%+18 pts
- Q33:20Travis Kelce 10 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)WSH 7 – 21 KC · KC 90% → 98% +8KC 90% → 98%+8 pts
- Q47:52Rashee Rice 18 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)WSH 7 – 28 KC · KC >99% → >99% +0KC >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chiefs 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 85.7% of 35 graded games.
- Market
- KC -11.5
- ML WSH +400 / KC -600
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -9.5
- KC 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- KC: Elo 80.2%, market 81.1%
- Fair odds
- KC -427
- WSH +427 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 18.5 – 30.0 KC
- Posted spread, posted total 48.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1662 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −54 | +6 | WSH: Marcus Mariota, usually Jayden Daniels · KC: Patrick Mahomes (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | KC +243 Elo | KC 80.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 82.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 80.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 81.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| WSH | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 3225.7 | Points scored | 26.68th of 32 |
| 21st of 3224.3 | Points allowed | 17.73rd of 32 |
| 14th of 32+1.4 | Margin | +8.93rd of 32 |
| 8th of 325.83 | Yards per play | 5.7112th of 32 |
| 26th of 325.85 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2913th of 32 |
| 21st of 321–3 | Road vs home | 3–16th of 32 |
| 28th of 321461 | Opponent Elo | 15178th of 32 |
| 16th of 321515 | Elo rating | 16622nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–4 | 4–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–4 | 4–3 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.