Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bears- Caleb WilliamsPassing17/29, 252 YDS, 1 TD
- D'Andre SwiftRushing14 CAR, 108 YDS
- D'Andre SwiftReceiving2 REC, 67 YDS, 1 TD
Commanders- Jayden DanielsPassing19/26, 211 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Jacory Croskey-MerrittRushing17 CAR, 61 YDS
- Chris MooreReceiving3 REC, 46 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Jake Moody 38 Yd Field Goal25–24
- Q410:26D'Andre Swift 55 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)22–24
- Q411:27Zach Ertz 6 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Matt Gay Kick)16–24
- Q32:56Luke McCaffrey 33 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Matt Gay Kick)16–17
- Q38:05Jake Moody 41 Yd Field Goal16–10
- Q311:59Matt Gay 53 Yd Field Goal13–10
- Q29:28Chris Moore 22 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Matt Gay Kick)13–7
- Q214:18Caleb Williams 1 Yd Rush (Jake Moody Kick)13–0
- Q12:27Jake Moody 48 Yd Field Goal6–0
- Q110:41Jake Moody 47 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:28Chris Moore 22 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Matt Gay Kick)CHI 13 – 7 WSH · WSH 27% → 47% +20WSH 27% → 47%+20 pts
- Q32:56Luke McCaffrey 33 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Matt Gay Kick)CHI 16 – 17 WSH · WSH 33% → 65% +31WSH 33% → 65%+31 pts
- Q411:27Zach Ertz 6 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Matt Gay Kick)CHI 16 – 24 WSH · WSH 64% → 91% +28WSH 64% → 91%+28 pts
- Q410:26D'Andre Swift 55 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)CHI 22 – 24 WSH · CHI 8% → 31% +23CHI 8% → 31%+23 pts
- Q40:00Jake Moody 38 Yd Field GoalCHI 25 – 24 WSH · CHI 0% → 100% +100CHI 0% → 100%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Commanders 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- WSH -5.5
- ML CHI +200 / WSH -240
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH -7.5
- WSH 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.6 pts
- WSH: Elo 74.5%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- WSH -217
- CHI +217 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 21.5 – 27.0 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 48.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1461 | 1578 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +1 | +35 | CHI: Caleb Williams · WSH: Jayden Daniels (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +187 Elo | WSH 74.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 66.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 72.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 68.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CHI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 3225.3 | Points scored | 26.87th of 32 |
| 29th of 3229.3 | Points allowed | 20.210th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−4.0 | Margin | +6.65th of 32 |
| 20th of 325.29 | Yards per play | 6.025th of 32 |
| 32nd of 326.72 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5721st of 32 |
| 10th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 32 |
| 14th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 147822nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 321461 | Elo rating | 157810th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  CHI |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–8 | 13–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 7–4 |
| Underdog | 5–7 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 6–9 | 13–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–1 WSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.