Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Commanders- Jayden DanielsPassing12/22, 156 YDS, 1 TD
- Jayden DanielsRushing8 CAR, 35 YDS, 1 TD
- Jaylin LaneReceiving3 REC, 60 YDS
Cowboys- Dak PrescottPassing21/30, 264 YDS, 3 TD
- Javonte WilliamsRushing19 CAR, 116 YDS, 1 TD
- CeeDee LambReceiving5 REC, 110 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q412:45Brandon Aubrey 29 Yd Field Goal22–44
- Q32:35Chris Rodriguez Jr. 3 Yd Rush (Matt Gay Kick)22–41
- Q35:31DaRon Bland 68 Yd Interception Return (Brandon Aubrey Kick)15–41
- Q37:44Jake Ferguson 5 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)15–34
- Q20:10Jake Ferguson 2 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)15–27
- Q20:45Jayden Daniels 1 Yd Rush (Matt Gay Kick)15–20
- Q27:22Brandon Aubrey 61 Yd Field Goal8–20
- Q14:27CeeDee Lamb 74 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)8–17
- Q16:14Brandon Aubrey 47 Yd Field Goal8–10
- Q17:38Zach Ertz 5 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)8–7
- Q111:23Daron Payne Safety2–7
- Q113:05Javonte Williams 2 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q113:05Javonte Williams 2 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)WSH 0 – 7 DAL · DAL 53% → 70% +17DAL 53% → 70%+17 pts
- Q17:38Zach Ertz 5 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)WSH 8 – 7 DAL · WSH 34% → 50% +16WSH 34% → 50%+16 pts
- Q14:27CeeDee Lamb 74 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)WSH 8 – 17 DAL · DAL 58% → 76% +17DAL 58% → 76%+17 pts
- Q20:45Jayden Daniels 1 Yd Rush (Matt Gay Kick)WSH 15 – 20 DAL · WSH 13% → 31% +18WSH 13% → 31%+18 pts
- Q20:10Jake Ferguson 2 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)WSH 15 – 27 DAL · DAL 69% → 87% +18DAL 69% → 87%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cowboys 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -2.5
- ML WSH +110 / DAL -130
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 42%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH -2.5
- DAL 40%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.0 pts
- DAL: Elo 40.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- DAL -114
- WSH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 26.0 – 28.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 54.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1564 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +35 | +36 | WSH: Jayden Daniels · DAL: Dak Prescott (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +69 Elo | WSH 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 58.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 53.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| WSH | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 3226.3 | Points scored | 29.73rd of 32 |
| 11th of 3221.0 | Points allowed | 30.731st of 32 |
| 9th of 32+5.3 | Margin | −1.020th of 32 |
| 5th of 325.93 | Yards per play | 6.043rd of 32 |
| 28th of 325.72 | Yards allowed per play | 6.1731st of 32 |
| 17th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 1–0–16th of 32 |
| 24th of 321472 | Opponent Elo | 148422nd of 32 |
| 11th of 321564 | Elo rating | 145822nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–3 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–3 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 1–3 DAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.