Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing29/45, 276 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Kareem HuntRushing13 CAR, 59 YDS, 1 TD
- Travis KelceReceiving9 REC, 91 YDS, 1 TD
Broncos- Bo NixPassing24/37, 295 YDS
- RJ HarveyRushing11 CAR, 30 YDS
- Troy FranklinReceiving4 REC, 84 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Wil Lutz 35 Yd Field Goal19–22
- Q44:10Wil Lutz 54 Yd Field Goal19–19
- Q49:57Travis Kelce 21 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker PAT blocked)19–16
- Q412:50Wil Lutz 38 Yd Field Goal13–16
- Q30:49Kareem Hunt 2 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker Kick)13–13
- Q34:03Jaleel McLaughlin 4 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)6–13
- Q24:38Harrison Butker 31 Yd Field Goal6–6
- Q10:49Harrison Butker 31 Yd Field Goal3–6
- Q14:53Wil Lutz 24 Yd Field Goal0–6
- Q17:36Wil Lutz 29 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:03Jaleel McLaughlin 4 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)KC 6 – 13 DEN · DEN 41% → 71% +30DEN 41% → 71%+30 pts
- Q30:49Kareem Hunt 2 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker Kick)KC 13 – 13 DEN · KC 26% → 58% +32KC 26% → 58%+32 pts
- Q49:57Travis Kelce 21 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker PAT blocked)KC 19 – 16 DEN · KC 38% → 73% +35KC 38% → 73%+35 pts
- Q44:10Wil Lutz 54 Yd Field GoalKC 19 – 19 DEN · DEN 21% → 46% +25DEN 21% → 46%+25 pts
- Q40:00Wil Lutz 35 Yd Field GoalKC 19 – 22 DEN · DEN 44% → 100% +56DEN 44% → 100%+56 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chiefs 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- KC -4.5
- ML KC -225 / DEN +190
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -1.5
- KC 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −22.1 pts
- KC: Elo 44.6%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- KC -187
- DEN +187 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 25.0 – 20.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 45.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1648 | 1653 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +5 | +2 | KC: Patrick Mahomes · DEN: Bo Nix (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +38 Elo | DEN 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 52.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 65.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| KC | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 3226.1 | Points scored | 23.517th of 32 |
| 4th of 3217.7 | Points allowed | 17.33rd of 32 |
| 5th of 32+8.4 | Margin | +6.28th of 32 |
| 9th of 325.76 | Yards per play | 5.3018th of 32 |
| 20th of 325.39 | Yards allowed per play | 4.341st of 32 |
| 21st of 321–2 | Road vs home | 5–01st of 32 |
| 10th of 321519 | Opponent Elo | 144130th of 32 |
| 5th of 321648 | Elo rating | 16534th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–4 | 4–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–6 | 3–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 2–2 DEN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.